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Topic · Geopolitics
231 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
5.3% of Polymarket
Events · markets
116 · 231
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 81 days
Biggest first · chance of Yes
| Market | Event | Chance | This week | Ends | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | Putin out as President of Russia by...? | 2.9¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $7.48M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:57 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? |
| 2.8¢ |
| down 0.4 points this week |
| Jan 1 |
| $0.97M |
| December 31 | NATO x Russia military clash by...? | 23.5¢ | up 2 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.81M |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | 6.0¢ | up 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.77M |
| October 31 | NATO x Russia military clash by...? | 6.5¢ | down 3 points this week | Nov 1 | $0.52M |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? | 15.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $0.41M |
| December 31 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 17.0¢ | up 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.41M |
| December 31 | Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? | 12.5¢ | up 2 points this week | Dec 31 | $0.36M |
| October 31 | Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? | 3.3¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Oct 31 | $0.30M |
| October 31 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 4.7¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Nov 1 | $0.29M |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | 8.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $0.28M |
| December 31, 2026 | Will Russia invade another country by...? | 6.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.27M |
| December 31, 2026 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? | 5.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $0.25M |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | 1.1¢ | down 0.6 points this week | Nov 1 | $0.23M |
| December 31, 2026 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...? | 5.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $0.22M |
| June 30, 2027 | Putin out as President of Russia by...? | 10.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jul 1 | $0.18M |
| December 31, 2026 | Russia military action against EU country by...? | 8.0¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.10M |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Lyman by...? | 5.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $97.9K |
| October 31 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...? | 3.5¢ | up 0.7 points this week | Nov 1 | $81.5K |
| December 31 | Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? | 54.5¢ | down 8 points this week | Jan 1 | $80.1K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? | 13.5¢ | down 9.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $73.1K |
| March 31, 2027 | Will Russia capture Sumy by...? | 4.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Apr 1 | $69.3K |
| October 31 | Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? | 21.0¢ | down 10.5 points this week | Oct 31 | $68.1K |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | 4.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $66.2K |
| December 31 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...? | 6.0¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $63.9K |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | 25.5¢ | – | Nov 1 | $57.1K |
| December 31 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...? | 10.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $53.5K |
| Druzkhivka | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 36.0¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $52.1K |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027? | 6.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $49.0K |
| Kramatorsk | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 11.0¢ | down 5 points this week | Jan 1 | $48.9K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by...? | 20.5¢ | down 4 points this week | Jan 1 | $47.1K |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | 4.0¢ | – | Jan 1 | $46.5K |
| Zaporizhia | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 2.6¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $36.7K |
| No meeting by December 31 | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 20.0¢ | up 2.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $35.8K |
| October 31 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? | 2.5¢ | down 1.2 points this week | Nov 1 | $33.4K |
| October 15 | Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? | 1.4¢ | down 7.1 points this week | Oct 15 | $31.4K |
| Sloviansk | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 8.5¢ | down 4 points this week | Jan 1 | $31.0K |
| December 31, 2026 | Ukraine election held by...? | 3.6¢ | up 2.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $30.4K |
| December 31, 2026 | Russia coup attempt by...? | 3.5¢ | down 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $29.7K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...? | 4.1¢ | up 1.6 points this week | Jan 1 | $28.5K |
| December 31, 2026 | Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...? | 1.8¢ | down 0.4 points this week | Jan 1 | $28.2K |
| March 31, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 33.5¢ | – | Apr 1 | $27.1K |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | 4.0¢ | down 2 points this week | Jan 1 | $26.5K |
| Vladimir Putin | Who will Trump meet with in 2026? | 81.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Dec 31 | $26.3K |
| June 30, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 50.5¢ | up 1.5 points this week | Jul 1 | $24.0K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...? | 25.5¢ | down 3.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $23.0K |
| Kharkiv | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 1.5¢ | down 0.9 points this week | Jan 1 | $20.3K |
| China | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 75.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $20.1K |
| June 30, 2027 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? | 59.5¢ | – | Jul 1 | $18.1K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...? | 17.0¢ | up 4 points this week | Jan 1 | $17.9K |
| US | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 1.1¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $16.8K |
| Qatar / UAE | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.8¢ | down 1.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $16.8K |
| November 30 | Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? | 39.5¢ | down 12.5 points this week | Nov 30 | $14.9K |
| No meeting before 2027 | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 96.0¢ | up 2 points this week | Jan 1 | $14.5K |
| Sumy | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 3.8¢ | down 1.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $13.3K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...? | 34.5¢ | down 8 points this week | Jan 1 | $12.5K |
| Belarus | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.2¢ | down 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $11.2K |
| January 31, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 24.5¢ | up 4 points this week | Feb 1 | $10.3K |
| October 31, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 64.0¢ | up 1.5 points this week | Nov 1 | $10.2K |
| Russia | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.5¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $9.1K |
| October 31 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...? | 9.0¢ | up 1 point this week | Nov 1 | $9.0K |
| India | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.1¢ | no change this week | Jan 1 | $8.3K |
| Russia | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.3¢ | down 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $8.3K |
| Switzerland | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.7¢ | no change this week | Jan 1 | $8.1K |
| Ukraine | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.1¢ | down 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $8.1K |
| Turkey | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.5¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $7.8K |
| United States | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 1.6¢ | down 2.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $7.7K |
| November 30 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 10.0¢ | up 1.5 points this week | Dec 1 | $7.7K |
| December 31, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 71.0¢ | up 5.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $6.8K |
| Other | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 1.2¢ | up 0.6 points this week | Jan 1 | $6.2K |
| Turkey | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.4¢ | down 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $6.2K |
| October 31 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...? | 3.6¢ | up 0.9 points this week | Nov 1 | $6.2K |
| Gulf country | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.5¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.9K |
| Belarus | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.1¢ | no change this week | Jan 1 | $5.9K |
| Other EU country | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.1¢ | no change this week | Jan 1 | $5.7K |
| Saudi Arabia | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.3¢ | down 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.6K |
| Finland | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.1¢ | down 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.6K |
| Kazakhstan | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.2¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.2K |
| Switzerland | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.3¢ | no change this week | Jan 1 | $5.1K |
| Hungary | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.1¢ | no change this week | Jan 1 | $4.8K |
| March 31, 2027 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? | 38.0¢ | down 5.5 points this week | Apr 1 | $4.6K |
| Italy / Vatican | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.3¢ | – | Jan 1 | $4.5K |
| Australia | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.1¢ | – | Jan 1 | $4.5K |
| South Korea | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.1¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $4.5K |
| February 28, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 27.5¢ | up 2.5 points this week | Mar 1 | $4.2K |
| China | Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | 0.9¢ | up 0.3 points this week | Jan 1 | $4.1K |
| Japan | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.1¢ | – | Jan 1 | $4.1K |
| Ukraine | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 0.1¢ | – | Jan 1 | $3.9K |
| June 30, 2027 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? | 8.5¢ | – | Jul 1 | $3.4K |
| December 31, 2027 | Russia military action against EU country by...? | 21.5¢ | down 4 points this week | Jan 1 | $3.3K |
| March 31, 2027 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...? | 63.0¢ | down 2.5 points this week | Apr 1 | $2.9K |
| May 31, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 47.5¢ | up 1.5 points this week | Jun 1 | $2.5K |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | Next leader out of power before 2027? | 2.6¢ | up 2.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.1K |
| December 31, 2027 | Will Russia invade another country by...? | 16.0¢ | down 2 points this week | Jan 1 | $1.7K |
| Putin - Russia President | Next leader out of power before 2027? | 0.4¢ | – | Jan 1 | $1.7K |
| Kherson | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 2.1¢ | down 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $1.6K |
| November 30 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...? | 17.5¢ | up 3 points this week | Dec 1 | $1.0K |
| April 30, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 39.5¢ | up 2 points this week | May 1 | $728 |
| November 30, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 67.5¢ | up 2.5 points this week | Dec 1 | $614 |
| July 31, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 53.5¢ | up 0.5 points this week | Aug 1 | $507 |
| September 30, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 61.5¢ | up 0.5 points this week | Oct 1 | $308 |
| August 31, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 58.0¢ | up 1 point this week | Sep 1 | $222 |
| November 30 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? | 9.5¢ | up 2 points this week | Dec 1 | $122 |
| December 31, 2027 | Russia coup attempt by...? | 18.0¢ | – | Jan 1 | $121 |