Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 16:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 45,592 | 92.7¢ | $44.2K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 30,054 | 88.8¢ | $29.1K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| TerreMoto0x0b21…deb6 | No | 20,853 | 93.8¢ | $20.2K | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 258 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | No | 16,341 | 93.7¢ | $15.8K | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 16,122 | 79.5¢ | $15.6K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| simplcom0x4812…c8f1 | No | 14,446 | 88.6¢ | $14K | — |