See what the market is really betting on.
$321M sits on Polymarket right now, spread across thousands of markets. Polyray splits it into the handful of outcomes it actually rides on, then shows you where your own wallet fits.
Your full risk picture in seconds. Free for any wallet.
The whole market, split by what it rides on
Updated hourly
6,729
separate markets, one bet: Soccer
Live market risk
Where the market's risk is piling up
Most crowded bets
Share of all open interest, grouped by underlying driver
US 2028 presidential race · 305 markets
20.1% $64.5M
US 2026 midterms · 1,775 markets
10.7% $34.4M
Iran conflict & Gulf shipping · 433 markets
9.8% $31.4M
Bitcoin price · 198 markets
5.8% $18.5M
Russia–Ukraine war · 405 markets
5.4% $17.3M
Fig. 1 · $321M open interest across 2,100 events · Trump tenure & Greenland ranks 10th at 2.5%
Driver moves today
Where the odds shifted, and how much money rides on them
Match Winner
$4.33M open interest
25%
▼ 20 pts
Harry Kane
$3.56M open interest
64%
▲ 10 pts
Nithya Raman
$1.52M open interest
60%
▲ 2 pts
Fig. 2 · Implied probability, 24-hour change
Driver moves this week
Where the odds shifted, and how much money rides on them
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$9.03M open interest
13%
▼ 30 pts
Harry Kane
$3.56M open interest
64%
▲ 22 pts
$300M
$1.28M open interest
86%
▲ 19 pts
Fig. 2 · Implied probability, 7-day change
Driver moves this month
Where the odds shifted, and how much money rides on them
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$9.03M open interest
13%
▼ 40 pts
Nithya Raman
$1.52M open interest
60%
▲ 25 pts
$300M
$1.28M open interest
86%
▲ 23 pts
Fig. 2 · Implied probability, 30-day change
Where the money is
Politics and geopolitics hold over half of all open interest.
Politics
43.5%
Geopolitics
22.7%
Crypto
13.2%
Sports
11.0%
Macro
4.5%
Tech
2.9%
Culture
1.2%
Weather
0.9%
Other
0.0%
Fig. 4 · Share of $321M open interest by category
How it works
Your book, against the whole market
Paste an address
Yours or any trader's. Your risk picture is ready in seconds.
We find the drivers
We read each market's rules and group positions by the outcome they depend on, with a reason for every grouping.
See you vs the crowd
Your real bets, your biggest driver, and whether you're piled into the same bet as everyone else.
Get told when it shifts
A weekly email, or a push the moment a driver you hold moves.
Clarity you can check.
Every number on Polyray comes with the reasoning behind it.
Every grouping explained
Each cluster shows why its markets move together.
The whole market in view
See your book next to what everyone else is crowding into.
Sharper decisions
Know your true exposure before every trade.
Questions
- What does “real bets” mean?
- The number of independent outcomes your positions actually depend on. Eight positions that all ride on the same Fed decision count as one bet.
- How are markets grouped?
- We map every market to the real-world outcome it depends on and show the reasoning behind each grouping. Then we add up open interest across every active market.
- Who is Polyray for?
- Active traders running several positions at once, and anyone who wants to see what the market is crowding into.
- Can I follow other traders?
- Yes. Follow any leaderboard trader and see how their exposure shifts over time.
- What does it cost?
- Nothing. Every feature is free: reports, alerts, the watchlist, comparisons and exports. Some features need a free account.