December 31

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire goes into effect by 11:59 PM EET on the specified date and stays in effect 10 straight days.§1

End of effect

A ceasefire is no longer in effect when a consensus of credible reporting indicates the general suspension of hostilities substantively ended across the…§10

Minor lapses

Temporary or technical lapses, isolated incidents, localized violations, or accusations alone do not invalidate the ceasefire if the general suspension…§11

Reporting over statements

Where official government statements conflict with a consensus of credible field reporting, the reporting takes precedence over the government statements.§12

Market stays open

If a qualifying ceasefire starts before the market's end date, the market remains open until it is no longer in effect or the 10 days are reached.§9

Counted

Any calendar day (EET) the ceasefire is in effect, including the first day, counts towards the 10-day total.§7

Source

The resolution source is a consensus of credible sources.§13

Closes

Dec 31, 2026 · 21:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• December 31 11.5¢
• October 31 2.6¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.