Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:02 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 12 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | No | 66,926 | 82.0¢ | $59.2K | Proven+$3.83 per $100 · 728 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 47,201 | 83.4¢ | $41.8K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| SlenderMan0xab19…4876 | No | 37,660 | 83.3¢ | $33.3K | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 532 bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 35,003 | 74.6¢ | $31K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | No | 24,156 | 83.4¢ | $21.4K | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 19,909 | 81.6¢ | $17.6K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,942 bets |
| pollybond0x224d…e0e7 | No | 16,000 | 85.0¢ | $14.2K | New16 settled bets |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 13,663 | 78.7¢ | $12.1K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| TerreMoto0x0b21…deb6 | No | 12,850 | 80.2¢ | $11.4K | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 258 bets |
| VladimirPooper0xa53e…218d | Yes | 97,878 | 19.5¢ | $11.3K | — |
| 0xheavy8880xec98…afcd | No | 10,000 | 86.0¢ | $8.85K | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 17,528 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 56,634 | 17.4¢ | $6.51K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 7,330 | 85.4¢ | $6.49K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| marketminder0x2272…7f10 | No | 6,343 | 86.7¢ | $5.61K | — |
| forinnerpsandr1x112220x5c14…cc49 | No | 5,000 | 65.0¢ | $4.42K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 298 bets |
| 0x6868…a90a | No | 4,369 | 75.0¢ | $3.87K | — |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | No | 4,190 | 85.6¢ | $3.71K | — |
| vgbyp0x6c18…238a | No | 4,188 | 66.0¢ | $3.71K | New5 settled bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 4,000 | 89.0¢ | $3.54K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| Nikitka0x2970…e1c9 | Yes | 29,227 | 29.6¢ | $3.36K | — |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 3,462 | 86.0¢ | $3.06K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 3,246 | 77.1¢ | $2.87K | — |
| simplcom0x4812…c8f1 | No | 3,060 | 78.2¢ | $2.71K | — |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | No | 3,036 | 86.1¢ | $2.69K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 1,153 bets |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | No | 2,855 | 78.4¢ | $2.53K | Proven+$12.29 per $100 · 3,032 bets |
| RewardsMafia0x3eed…cb2a | No | 2,841 | 88.0¢ | $2.51K | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 237 bets |
| DedBanzay0x5b0f…6d7b | Yes | 20,899 | 15.9¢ | $2.4K | — |
| yevhenry0x0164…9ed6 | No | 2,700 | 74.1¢ | $2.39K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 20,577 | 13.4¢ | $2.37K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| kanzork0xd276…a827 | No | 2,419 | 86.0¢ | $2.14K | — |
| 0xcf19…6402 | No | 2,356 | 76.9¢ | $2.08K | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 457 bets |
| Pulser0x6a83…4c59 | Yes | 16,836 | 16.9¢ | $1.94K | Proven+$9.39 per $100 · 1,286 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 16,128 | 12.0¢ | $1.85K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 10,235 bets |
| asterley0xe762…064b | No | 2,064 | 78.5¢ | $1.83K | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 2,000 | 87.2¢ | $1.77K | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| BloodyMummer0xffb0…fa37 | No | 2,000 | 76.5¢ | $1.77K | — |
| tumbra0x52ca…523f | No | 1,982 | 79.0¢ | $1.75K | Proven+$8.86 per $100 · 108 bets |
| jtradegbr0x2bc7…e411 | No | 1,830 | 84.2¢ | $1.62K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 2,136 bets |
| nero25890x1464…5e75 | No | 1,713 | 85.3¢ | $1.52K | Losing−$3.02 per $100 · 2,380 bets |
| DrNee0xba62…58e9 | No | 1,679 | 76.5¢ | $1.49K | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 331 bets |
| gambler130x7319…0299 | Yes | 12,878 | 13.5¢ | $1.48K | — |
| defkaki0x0051…a955 | No | 1,668 | 84.3¢ | $1.48K | — |
| cooldisplayname0x610a…cb39 | No | 1,662 | 73.7¢ | $1.47K | — |
| notssf30x5a7b…e9eb | Yes | 12,332 | 15.0¢ | $1.42K | Proven+$9.69 per $100 · 213 bets |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | No | 1,595 | 83.0¢ | $1.41K | Proven+$10.80 per $100 · 1,660 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,524 | 85.5¢ | $1.35K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| winelavkakz0x6959…5575 | No | 1,500 | 89.5¢ | $1.33K | — |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 10,960 | 26.1¢ | $1.26K | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 1,389 | 88.0¢ | $1.23K | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 29,886+ bets · updating |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | No | 1,351 | 89.8¢ | $1.2K | — |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | Yes | 10,000 | 16.9¢ | $1.15K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 2,128 bets |
| SomerandomD0x2db9…33f1 | No | 1,210 | 90.0¢ | $1.07K | — |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 1,200 | 82.6¢ | $1.06K | — |
| Madsolbro0x0e09…05bb | No | 1,163 | 86.0¢ | $1.03K | Losing−$5.73 per $100 · 123 bets |
| zve3da0xc948…33a1 | No | 1,163 | 86.0¢ | $1.03K | New44 settled bets |
| 0x0f9f…0ad6 | No | 1,141 | 79.3¢ | $1.01K | — |
| failedhfanalyst0xe69f…4900 | No | 1,059 | 0.0¢ | $938 | — |
| deltasniper0x0826…0b32 | No | 1,000 | 85.0¢ | $885 | Losing−$1.42 per $100 · 494 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 1,000 | 83.6¢ | $885 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 871 bets |
| 007-Bond0x8947…f4b4 | No | 1,000 | 70.8¢ | $885 | New96 settled bets |
| 0xe41a…29bd | No | 1,000 | 83.0¢ | $885 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| mm4ker0x8c57…f939 | Yes | 5,714 | 35.0¢ | $657 | Proven+$4.56 per $100 · 367 bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | Yes | 5,622 | 16.0¢ | $647 | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| cookie960xfb41…1fff | Yes | 5,000 | 13.0¢ | $575 | — |
| lug0xe0db…f44e | Yes | 4,000 | 14.0¢ | $460 | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 4,496 bets |
| witrere0x25b4…c3fa | Yes | 3,855 | 15.4¢ | $443 | — |
| bosshog0x47ab…95df | Yes | 3,535 | 13.5¢ | $406 | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,839 bets |
| drqwert0x2930…4cf8 | Yes | 3,248 | 26.0¢ | $374 | — |
| zzzzzgggg0x48fe…e6e4 | Yes | 3,200 | 19.0¢ | $368 | — |
| CryptoGo0x129d…7d2d | Yes | 3,124 | 23.0¢ | $359 | Positive+$3.41 per $100 · 177 bets |
| MerhabaKardesim0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | 3,012 | 9.0¢ | $346 | Positive+$4.36 per $100 · 1,098 bets |
| Copezilla0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | 3,000 | 24.0¢ | $345 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| TheKinginYellow0x4ac9…cf1a | Yes | 2,900 | 31.2¢ | $333 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 2,845 | 19.4¢ | $327 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| Denis990xc6a2…d076 | Yes | 2,600 | 33.2¢ | $299 | New72 settled bets |
| 0xfc9d…9d68 | Yes | 2,214 | 14.0¢ | $255 | New8 settled bets |
| 0xf2d7…1516 | Yes | 2,164 | 17.1¢ | $249 | — |
| ClearMove0xd7f1…73cd | Yes | 2,000 | 17.7¢ | $230 | Positive+$12.07 per $100 · 1,186 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 1,774 | 12.4¢ | $204 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| 0x41a0…6e8e | Yes | 1,653 | 14.1¢ | $190 | — |
| latvianboy0x5bae…2955 | Yes | 1,600 | 22.5¢ | $184 | — |
| TruongMyLan0x6978…08d8 | Yes | 1,500 | 21.0¢ | $173 | Positive+$6.58 per $100 · 1,267 bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | Yes | 1,500 | 20.3¢ | $172 | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 2,393 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 1,500 | 12.5¢ | $172 | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
| ibear0xe25a…7f82 | Yes | 1,200 | 19.0¢ | $138 | — |
| alpaca0x5da5…e620 | Yes | 1,167 | 12.9¢ | $134 | — |
| gullytrader0x5e6b…574d | Yes | 1,100 | 14.0¢ | $127 | — |
| wbxxx0x449c…879e | Yes | 1,000 | 12.0¢ | $115 | Positive+$1.76 per $100 · 684 bets |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 1,000 | 15.0¢ | $115 | — |
| hahaha130x491e…667f | Yes | 1,000 | 12.0¢ | $115 | New42 settled bets |
| OneIsAll.0xa557…5e8a | Yes | 1,000 | 25.0¢ | $115 | — |
| Husky3312Dinosaur0x5ea9…b6b8 | Yes | 870 | 35.0¢ | $100 | — |
| 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | 850 | 16.6¢ | $98 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 919 bets |
| Cpp10x3618…21cf | Yes | 833 | 24.0¢ | $96 | — |
| Kas290x9039…1867 | Yes | 813 | 16.0¢ | $93 | — |
| 0x24321322b33abD6850aC01b7EDE42110x2132…7657 | Yes | 700 | 35.0¢ | $81 | — |
| 0x1668…43d5 | Yes | 700 | 27.0¢ | $80 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 600 | 33.0¢ | $69 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| Mitakaasa70x6312…f94e | Yes | 600 | 19.2¢ | $69 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 2,037 bets |
| wildsoul0xf123…5bb7 | Yes | 595 | 16.0¢ | $68 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.