Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:05 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 45,592 | 92.7¢ | $44.2K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 30,054 | 88.8¢ | $29.1K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,942 bets |
| TerreMoto0x0b21…deb6 | No | 20,853 | 93.8¢ | $20.2K | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 258 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | No | 16,341 | 93.7¢ | $15.8K | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 16,122 | 79.5¢ | $15.6K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| simplcom0x4812…c8f1 | No | 14,446 | 88.6¢ | $14K | — |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | No | 12,731 | 91.9¢ | $12.3K | Proven+$3.83 per $100 · 728 bets |
| nedsta0xf92a…a517 | No | 10,597 | 96.4¢ | $10.3K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 466 bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 6,800 | 90.9¢ | $6.59K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| smartrandom0xfc75…8604 | No | 4,886 | 97.7¢ | $4.74K | — |
| SlenderMan0xab19…4876 | No | 4,645 | 96.1¢ | $4.5K | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 532 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 4,200 | 96.1¢ | $4.07K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| gambler130x7319…0299 | Yes | 114,507 | 5.8¢ | $3.49K | — |
| Marc3450x0911…6594 | No | 3,357 | 89.4¢ | $3.25K | New9 settled bets |
| pollybond0x224d…e0e7 | No | 3,000 | 93.0¢ | $2.91K | New16 settled bets |
| Manzana6980x4727…5aa5 | No | 2,979 | 94.0¢ | $2.89K | New55 settled bets |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | No | 2,500 | 86.5¢ | $2.42K | Proven+$12.29 per $100 · 3,032 bets |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | No | 2,330 | 95.5¢ | $2.26K | — |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | No | 2,308 | 92.2¢ | $2.24K | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| asterley0xe762…064b | No | 2,258 | 86.3¢ | $2.19K | — |
| RewardsMafia0x3eed…cb2a | No | 2,245 | 94.4¢ | $2.18K | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 237 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 2,199 | 91.0¢ | $2.13K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| momo5130xcdf8…b8ea | No | 2,000 | 93.5¢ | $1.94K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 704 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 1,800 | 97.4¢ | $1.74K | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 1,575 | 80.7¢ | $1.53K | — |
| yen4u0xf0d5…c665 | No | 1,500 | 91.0¢ | $1.45K | Losing−$5.26 per $100 · 1,977 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1,277 | 95.8¢ | $1.24K | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| AuthenticDemigod0x7487…fc0c | No | 1,200 | 90.9¢ | $1.16K | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 346 bets |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | No | 1,200 | 97.4¢ | $1.16K | — |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | No | 1,124 | 85.4¢ | $1.09K | Proven+$10.80 per $100 · 1,660 bets |
| tl2000x2dc6…cf37 | No | 1,000 | 96.8¢ | $970 | New41 settled bets |
| Jerzy0x5943…2ef2 | No | 1,000 | 79.0¢ | $969 | Proven+$5.52 per $100 · 363 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 1,000 | 93.3¢ | $969 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 871 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 1,000 | 91.0¢ | $969 | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 960 | 82.7¢ | $930 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| xlixli0x42c1…559f | No | 884 | 89.5¢ | $857 | — |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | No | 855 | 97.6¢ | $829 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| HerrMayer0x1d45…d758 | No | 700 | 78.0¢ | $679 | — |
| 007-Bond0x8947…f4b4 | No | 685 | 86.0¢ | $664 | New96 settled bets |
| JwM6RbLp9q0x10a7…8652 | No | 641 | 97.6¢ | $622 | — |
| Sinonn0xaf98…d365 | No | 641 | 78.0¢ | $621 | — |
| NoPasaran50x29a1…5645 | No | 634 | 85.2¢ | $615 | — |
| doctorzhao0x5292…0a64 | No | 625 | 80.0¢ | $606 | — |
| WCBT0x66d7…5b7b | Yes | 19,590 | 21.1¢ | $598 | Losing−$9.96 per $100 · 283 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 600 | 66.0¢ | $582 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| Vasiqwe0xb555…e61b | No | 600 | 76.7¢ | $582 | Proven+$8.12 per $100 · 855 bets |
| bLp9R7qT6JkX0x8054…6319 | No | 575 | 97.5¢ | $558 | — |
| WarmStoneRunner0xd100…3960 | No | 569 | 97.5¢ | $552 | New87 settled bets |
| Anonnnn24090x9b22…3a92 | No | 500 | 84.7¢ | $485 | — |
| winelavkakz0x6959…5575 | No | 500 | 97.9¢ | $485 | — |
| TimberShadeFox0xb654…67d4 | No | 477 | 97.6¢ | $463 | — |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | Yes | 15,078 | 13.7¢ | $460 | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 771 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 15,000 | 7.0¢ | $457 | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 12,692 | 8.7¢ | $387 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| PMPD0x90c1…f6be | Yes | 10,000 | 5.0¢ | $305 | — |
| VladimirPooper0xa53e…218d | Yes | 6,346 | 12.8¢ | $194 | — |
| 0x3188…8f1e | Yes | 3,642 | 8.5¢ | $111 | — |
| santashrek810x3fbc…30a4 | Yes | 3,002 | 12.6¢ | $92 | — |
| illumination0xe1b5…8378 | Yes | 2,600 | 2.5¢ | $79 | New68 settled bets |
| Crock950x9524…86cf | Yes | 2,539 | 2.6¢ | $77 | Proven+$28.91 per $100 · 557 bets |
| 0xfa39…977f | Yes | 2,165 | 4.1¢ | $66 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 1,050 bets |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 2,000 | 8.0¢ | $61 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 3,504 bets |
| AmericanIsraelPublicAffairsCommittee0x64b4…b21e | Yes | 2,000 | 6.0¢ | $61 | — |
| LilleBjoern0x9721…3ef8 | Yes | 2,000 | 6.0¢ | $61 | — |
| avel-mink0x5738…cbb7 | Yes | 1,900 | 3.7¢ | $58 | — |
| Avitz330x7a90…2ff9 | Yes | 1,700 | 7.0¢ | $52 | Proven+$13.01 per $100 · 1,255 bets |
| 0xff61…0351 | Yes | 1,700 | 4.4¢ | $52 | — |
| Kas290x9039…1867 | Yes | 1,538 | 10.9¢ | $47 | — |
| 0xfc9d…9d68 | Yes | 1,460 | 5.0¢ | $45 | New8 settled bets |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 1,283 | 18.7¢ | $39 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| bigmaw0x5ff8…973d | Yes | 1,000 | 6.0¢ | $31 | — |
| KyroKennn0x3b83…008b | Yes | 1,000 | 2.8¢ | $31 | — |
| BoB0x9ce0…b2ff | Yes | 1,000 | 15.0¢ | $31 | — |
| jsjr0x12bf…ddaf | Yes | 909 | 7.7¢ | $28 | Losing−$1.74 per $100 · 688 bets |
| shaloooom0x1ab1…5b1b | Yes | 889 | 2.8¢ | $27 | — |
| Cdxmoon0x7666…9863 | Yes | 852 | 11.7¢ | $26 | — |
| 0x24321322b33abD6850aC01b7EDE42110x2132…7657 | Yes | 850 | 20.0¢ | $26 | — |
| BleatingWeasel0xb264…eb03 | Yes | 838 | 8.9¢ | $26 | — |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | Yes | 800 | 13.0¢ | $24 | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 2,393 bets |
| Lithia0xeb84…e913 | Yes | 761 | 22.0¢ | $23 | — |
| Vulnus0xdbeb…0afc | Yes | 687 | 22.0¢ | $21 | — |
| 0xfbc4…5f8a | Yes | 647 | 2.4¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x2db7…8f9b | Yes | 600 | 5.0¢ | $18 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 597 | 5.0¢ | $18 | Positive+$12.12 per $100 · 3,911 bets |
| moyaa0xe504…e2ed | Yes | 573 | 16.6¢ | $17 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 571 | 8.6¢ | $17 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | 555 | 27.8¢ | $17 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| latvianboy0x5bae…2955 | Yes | 510 | 13.9¢ | $16 | — |
| sec93290x1e98…e04e | Yes | 500 | 6.0¢ | $15 | — |
| mylee310x6c4c…ea0c | Yes | 500 | 13.0¢ | $15 | — |
| CelticVenom0x09bb…1c5c | Yes | 452 | 3.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x2106…fa73 | Yes | 420 | 5.0¢ | $13 | — |
| 4lucky0xb37e…8d2f | Yes | 417 | 12.0¢ | $13 | New50 settled bets |
| 0xe817…d395 | Yes | 408 | 3.2¢ | $12 | — |
| DeverNoom0x529d…6381 | Yes | 400 | 5.0¢ | $12 | Proven+$2.70 per $100 · 875 bets |
| porcorosso0xe2b0…5bae | Yes | 386 | 9.1¢ | $12 | — |
| Shampooo0x032a…cf07 | Yes | 368 | 2.7¢ | $11 | — |
| OTTOOTTO0x39b2…abf7 | Yes | 347 | 22.0¢ | $11 | — |
| nenuach0x5caa…ec5c | Yes | 346 | 2.9¢ | $11 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.