December 31

Decided by

The market resolves Yes if NATO and Russian military forces have a military encounter from January 2 to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.§1

Non-violent acts

Airspace violations, warning shots and cyberattacks do not qualify.§4

Interceptions of strikes

Intercepting missiles or munitions aimed at a third party other than the listed countries does not alone qualify.§5

Drones shot down

Shooting down UAVs that are not munitions qualifies.§6

Ramming, collisions

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without weapons, do not qualify regardless of damage.§7

Counted

A military encounter: any incident using force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire or other direct military engagement.§3

Source

A consensus of credible reporting.§9

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• December 31 21.5¢
• October 31 5.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.