October 31

Decided by

"Yes" if there is a military encounter between NATO country forces and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.§1

Non-violent actions

Airspace violations, warning shots (like the June 2021 Black Sea confrontations) and cyberattacks do not qualify.§4

Shooting down UAVs

Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2) will qualify.§6

Intercepted munitions

Interception of missiles or one-way attack or loitering munitions targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries will not alone qualify.§5

Collisions

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without direct use of weaponry, will not qualify regardless of damage.§7

Counted

Any incident involving use of force between NATO and Russian military forces, such as missile strikes, artillery fire or gunfire.§3

Source

A consensus of credible reporting.§9

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• December 31 20.5¢
• October 31 6.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.