Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
NATO–Russia Military Clash · 2 events · $1.4M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
12 proven traders are on Yes, 9 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SlenderMan0xab19…4876 | No | 119,400 | 83.1¢ | $112K | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 533 bets |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | No | 41,187 | 87.1¢ | $38.5K | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 30,060+ bets · updating |
| dwarf1230x8dc9…434f | No | 22,640 | 83.7¢ | $21.2K | New9 settled bets |
| ppxtu0xfb57…0a46 | No | 19,726 | 85.4¢ | $18.4K | New85 settled bets |
| 0xff1e…5e2d | No | 17,951 | 80.4¢ | $16.8K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 639 bets |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | Yes | 251,915 | 17.5¢ | $16.4K | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 772 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 15,417 | 85.4¢ | $14.4K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 777 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 10,209 | 84.3¢ | $9.55K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| samemma0x52ab…c26c | No | 10,000 | 92.8¢ | $9.35K | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 179 bets |
| moneychen0030x6fb9…05c7 | No | 10,000 | 85.0¢ | $9.35K | New2 settled bets |
| Binturung0x9589…39b0 | No | 10,000 | 76.0¢ | $9.35K | New61 settled bets |
| WizhardofOddz0x500e…79d4 | No | 8,735 | 90.8¢ | $8.17K | New69 settled bets |
| lug0xe0db…f44e | No | 8,488 | 86.9¢ | $7.94K | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 4,496 bets |
| 0xaca0…7f9c | No | 8,346 | 90.9¢ | $7.8K | New0 settled bets |
| MoonLambo12050x49e9…8f85 | No | 7,679 | 89.3¢ | $7.18K | Losing−$3.34 per $100 · 144 bets |
| Specksalam0x80f1…3ccd | No | 7,612 | 84.8¢ | $7.12K | New88 settled bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 7,544 | 86.0¢ | $7.05K | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,390 bets |
| 0x41e8…b994 | No | 6,284 | 85.0¢ | $5.88K | Proven+$8.84 per $100 · 149 bets |
| tribebet0x7680…cbc9 | No | 6,250 | 80.0¢ | $5.84K | New0 settled bets |
| RolandDrump0x7532…c6fc | No | 6,000 | 84.0¢ | $5.61K | Proven+$4.09 per $100 · 477 bets |
| Max30x19f1…599e | No | 5,856 | 85.4¢ | $5.48K | New23 settled bets |
| JSG30x0191…541d | No | 5,000 | 85.0¢ | $4.67K | New18 settled bets |
| onekey020xfaf9…f4c4 | No | 5,000 | 92.0¢ | $4.67K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 441 bets |
| AlexCimmeria0x21c7…191a | No | 4,800 | 84.5¢ | $4.49K | Losing−$16.65 per $100 · 224 bets |
| Vulgata0xf1b1…5080 | No | 4,716 | 92.0¢ | $4.41K | New0 settled bets |
| 0x6c10…df5c | No | 4,600 | 86.2¢ | $4.3K | Losing−$7.13 per $100 · 1,041 bets |
| trx10xc6a2…c9b7 | No | 4,500 | 91.0¢ | $4.21K | Proven+$5.61 per $100 · 172 bets |
| aenews20x44c1…ebc1 | Yes | 61,404 | 14.8¢ | $3.99K | Positive+$1.65 per $100 · 4,115 bets |
| kaspersz0x351a…3bc7 | No | 3,996 | 86.8¢ | $3.74K | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 1,097 bets |
| whatuppp0xa7ce…df06 | No | 3,922 | 85.0¢ | $3.67K | New15 settled bets |
| ylv0x406e…b243 | No | 3,723 | 80.6¢ | $3.48K | New2 settled bets |
| valimair0x7db3…919c | No | 3,500 | 87.4¢ | $3.27K | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 206 bets |
| testlox60x5f14…ace5 | No | 3,440 | 84.0¢ | $3.22K | New0 settled bets |
| mamai0xabbe…8f37 | No | 3,203 | 84.3¢ | $3K | Losing−$7.39 per $100 · 667 bets |
| mathrex0x50b0…1640 | No | 3,199 | 89.1¢ | $2.99K | New64 settled bets |
| Trumpchi0xf7b3…eeb2 | No | 3,134 | 84.2¢ | $2.93K | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 472 bets |
| Enron2.00x4fdd…aa0e | No | 3,125 | 80.0¢ | $2.92K | New0 settled bets |
| Manzana6980x4727…5aa5 | No | 3,034 | 89.0¢ | $2.84K | New55 settled bets |
| SuperFake0x9901…6046 | No | 3,013 | 89.0¢ | $2.82K | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 1,317 bets |
| Everestpredictions0xceca…3f67 | No | 3,010 | 82.9¢ | $2.81K | Break-even−$0.24 per $100 · 817 bets |
| zctrading0x7e5b…e00b | No | 3,000 | 89.0¢ | $2.81K | New27 settled bets |
| Romkos70xa39c…08bc | No | 3,000 | 84.3¢ | $2.81K | Proven+$2.73 per $100 · 144 bets |
| 0xa642…b419 | No | 3,000 | 87.7¢ | $2.81K | New42 settled bets |
| xiaojiren0x5372…4b1f | No | 2,800 | 88.8¢ | $2.62K | Break-even+$1.00 per $100 · 248 bets |
| -Yang-0x43a6…8b32 | No | 2,616 | 83.5¢ | $2.45K | Proven+$7.81 per $100 · 425 bets |
| Salamandra1110xe6c4…c574 | No | 2,541 | 86.6¢ | $2.38K | New17 settled bets |
| nuser260xefdc…9776 | No | 2,163 | 82.8¢ | $2.02K | New32 settled bets |
| nero25890x1464…5e75 | No | 2,160 | 84.9¢ | $2.02K | Losing−$3.02 per $100 · 2,380 bets |
| lklnd0x6e0e…abec | No | 2,149 | 87.0¢ | $2.01K | Proven+$3.07 per $100 · 1,255 bets |
| led11100x9941…55a5 | No | 2,124 | 85.0¢ | $1.99K | New0 settled bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 2,018 | 88.5¢ | $1.89K | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 2,000 | 87.0¢ | $1.87K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | Yes | 20,028 | 14.8¢ | $1.3K | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 769 bets |
| AlphaBetaGamma23570x5652…00c9 | Yes | 18,943 | 12.3¢ | $1.23K | Proven+$5.60 per $100 · 868 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 15,596 | 16.6¢ | $1.01K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,713 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 15,301 | 10.2¢ | $995 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,413 bets |
| tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5 | Yes | 14,357 | 12.8¢ | $933 | Break-even−$0.43 per $100 · 1,083 bets |
| CW19750x0d7e…cb13 | Yes | 12,700 | 7.0¢ | $826 | New92 settled bets |
| pretzel0xda73…4d41 | Yes | 12,132 | 16.2¢ | $789 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 167 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | Yes | 10,000 | 15.0¢ | $650 | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 2,128 bets |
| alivedeer0xe0c5…913c | Yes | 6,050 | 8.0¢ | $393 | Losing−$12.71 per $100 · 427 bets |
| Ban4ik0xfd12…53fa | Yes | 5,865 | 13.9¢ | $381 | Losing−$1.52 per $100 · 265 bets |
| 0xa4c8…b0ec | Yes | 5,575 | 12.0¢ | $362 | New28 settled bets |
| folioquant0xeb52…67cc | Yes | 4,505 | 11.2¢ | $293 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 533 bets |
| 0xfd60…93cb | Yes | 3,742 | 13.4¢ | $243 | New20 settled bets |
| CondeDeBelloch0x72bb…ef39 | Yes | 3,159 | 16.8¢ | $205 | Losing−$16.82 per $100 · 177 bets |
| rabbit0070xf2aa…21fb | Yes | 3,000 | 18.7¢ | $195 | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 860 bets |
| amirio110xec8c…8961 | Yes | 2,650 | 15.1¢ | $172 | New67 settled bets |
| goatboss0x56e7…cf24 | Yes | 2,500 | 16.8¢ | $162 | New35 settled bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 2,500 | 15.4¢ | $162 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 2,500 | 17.0¢ | $162 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 2,500 | 16.3¢ | $162 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 2,459 | 33.2¢ | $160 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| dc4cab483a985948f36fd3c86523e00xbf9f…2a46 | Yes | 2,400 | 15.3¢ | $156 | Losing−$6.45 per $100 · 4,557 bets |
| mirroredtrade-RocWins0xdb25…eb12 | Yes | 2,365 | 8.9¢ | $154 | Losing−$4.60 per $100 · 3,691 bets |
| L1quid0xa794…42ad | Yes | 2,336 | 16.0¢ | $152 | Proven+$9.83 per $100 · 122 bets |
| AgricultureSecretary0x6ffb…a834 | Yes | 2,200 | 17.0¢ | $143 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 13,568 bets |
| jjjjok66660x8f51…5b82 | Yes | 2,079 | 14.1¢ | $135 | New48 settled bets |
| Seluj0x7f20…086a | Yes | 2,000 | 16.0¢ | $130 | Proven+$15.61 per $100 · 267 bets |
| trader-4970xe5a1…3840 | Yes | 2,000 | 16.0¢ | $130 | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 7,958 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 2,000 | 6.5¢ | $130 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | Yes | 2,000 | 29.5¢ | $130 | Positive+$2.88 per $100 · 1,252 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | Yes | 1,965 | 18.3¢ | $128 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 1,616 | 21.1¢ | $105 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 1,500 | 18.0¢ | $98 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| EscapeVelocity0x832b…3ae1 | Yes | 1,500 | 18.0¢ | $97 | Proven+$4.44 per $100 · 1,574 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 1,313 | 7.8¢ | $85 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| 0x7500…567f | Yes | 1,300 | 19.0¢ | $85 | Positive+$7.54 per $100 · 1,726 bets |
| 8014a3d96c0x3592…c68c | Yes | 1,250 | 16.4¢ | $81 | New34 settled bets |
| EternalDecay0x315a…ac61 | Yes | 1,212 | 14.8¢ | $79 | New1 settled bet |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 1,202 | 7.7¢ | $78 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| yhahh99200x211e…62e9 | Yes | 1,176 | 17.0¢ | $76 | New1 settled bet |
| BeneGesseritVoice0xcb59…0a22 | Yes | 1,111 | 17.0¢ | $72 | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 2,191 bets |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | Yes | 1,100 | 16.4¢ | $71 | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 2,966 bets |
| ifyouloveme0x5a0d…fa97 | Yes | 1,097 | 22.8¢ | $71 | Positive+$2.57 per $100 · 549 bets |
| accelarated0x39df…644b | Yes | 1,000 | 17.0¢ | $65 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 388 bets |
| TherealMrblue0x2432…3ef5 | Yes | 952 | 21.0¢ | $62 | New25 settled bets |
| 0x611c…a931 | Yes | 938 | 16.0¢ | $61 | Break-even−$0.96 per $100 · 291 bets |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | Yes | 881 | 15.0¢ | $57 | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| Andyhudson101450xd841…a05c | Yes | 865 | 12.9¢ | $56 | New1 settled bet |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.