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Topic · Geopolitics
3 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.4% of Polymarket
Events · markets
2 · 3
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Nov 1
in 21 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by...? | December 31 | 21.5¢ | – | $1.29M |
| Russia military action against EU country by...? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:22 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| December 31, 2027 |
| 24.0¢ |
| up 0.5 points this week |
| $3.3K |
Yes minus No · across the 3 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| SlenderMan0xab19…4876 | No on October 31 | $111.6K | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 532 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No on December 31 | $72.2K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
| onekey020xfaf9…f4c4 | No on December 31 | $51.7K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 441 bets |
| LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a | December 31 | $45.7K | Proven+$10.70 per $100 · 391 bets |
| ppxtu0xfb57…0a46 | No on December 31 | $44.5K | New85 bets |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | No on October 31 | $38.2K | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 30,060 bets |
| samemma0x52ab…c26c | No on December 31 | $34.6K | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 179 bets |
| dwarf1230x8dc9…434f | No on October 31 | $33.5K | New9 bets |
| sbimbg0xf519…906b | No on December 31 | $33.4K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 7,044 bets |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | October 31 | $31.1K | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 771 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.