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Topic · Geopolitics
203 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
5.0% of Polymarket
Events · markets
110 · 203
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by...? | June 30, 2027 | 9.5¢ | down 1 point this week | $7.67M |
| NATO x Russia military clash by...? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 14:36 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| December 31 |
| 21.5¢ |
| – |
| $1.29M |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? | June 30, 2027 | 8.5¢ | – | $0.97M |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | December 31, 2027 | 70.5¢ | up 1.5 points this week | $0.81M |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 93.5¢ | down 1.5 points this week | $0.78M |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? | December 31 | 11.5¢ | up 1 point this week | $0.65M |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? | June 30, 2027 | 60.0¢ | down 8.5 points this week | $0.44M |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 91.5¢ | – | $0.28M |
| Will Russia invade another country by...? | December 31, 2027 | 16.0¢ | up 4 points this week | $0.28M |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? | No | 94.5¢ | – | $0.25M |
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| ReedUpdatee0x07a9…32c8 | No on December 31, 2026 | $1.15M | Losing−$7.86 per $100 · 133 bets |
| onekey020xfaf9…f4c4 | No on December 31, 2026 | $1.06M | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 441 bets |
| ThisAgain0x2cff…59db | No on December 31, 2026 | $522.5K | New36 bets |
| ololololololololo0x2c4c…cb39 | No on December 31, 2026 | $516.0K | Losing−$8.48 per $100 · 188 bets |
| BigBusinessPro0x71b5…1231 | No on December 31, 2026 | $320.6K | New1 settled bet |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on December 31, 2026 | $303.0K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| Clicker10xc884…e17e | No on December 31, 2026 | $296.1K | New24 bets |
| IGORS0x1496…ee6f | No on December 31, 2026 | $280.7K | New14 bets |
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No on December 31 | $199.7K | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 414 bets |
| SlenderMan0xab19…4876 | No on October 31 | $191.7K | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 532 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.