Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 16:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theitaliangoats0x217a…86db | No | 684 | 87.7¢ | $575 | — |
| Donny.T0x8190…b247 | No | 175 | 74.0¢ | $147 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 764 bets |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | No | 120 | 86.5¢ | $101 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 13,909 bets |
| Dragaris0x15fb…e8fd | Yes | 253 | 15.8¢ | $40 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 217 | 18.2¢ | $35 | Losing−$6.47 per $100 · 30,061+ bets · updating |
| Bperil0xc624…ee24 | No | 40 | 87.0¢ | $34 | Proven+$3.56 per $100 · 1,974 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Russia Invades Another Country · 2 events · $278K in play