December 31, 2027

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if Russia starts a military offensive to control part of any UN member state's territory other than Ukraine's.§1

De facto control

Land de facto controlled by a UN member state as of market creation counts as that country's sovereign territory.§3

Ukraine excluded

An offensive against Ukraine's territory does not count toward "Yes".§1

Counted

Any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's.§1

Source

A consensus of credible reporting.§4

Closes

Jan 1, 2028 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.