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Topic · Geopolitics
4 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.1% of Polymarket
Events · markets
2 · 4
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
2 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade another country by...? | December 31, 2027 | 16.0¢ | up 4 points this week | $0.28M |
| EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:04 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| December 31 |
| 90.5¢ |
| down 1.5 points this week |
| $2.3K |
Yes minus No · across the 4 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| NeH0x11fc…dc48 | No on December 31, 2026 | $47.0K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 159 bets |
| Donny.T0x8190…b247 | No on December 31, 2026 | $46.8K | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 764 bets |
| gorovi0x1de9…831d | No on December 31, 2026 | $30.4K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 398 bets |
| Scoofy-Bubik0x709a…7e39 | No on December 31, 2026 | $22.7K | New83 bets |
| VladimirPooper0xa53e…218d | No on December 31, 2026 | $17.8K | – |
| TronOG0x77c3…00c8 | No on December 31, 2026 | $14.3K | Proven+$3.07 per $100 · 404 bets |
| DFK0x0dde…94c3 | No on December 31, 2026 | $9.1K | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 713 bets |
| megafom0xb3bd…f543 | No on December 31, 2026 | $6.8K | – |
| Jerzy0x5943…2ef2 | No on December 31, 2026 | $5.6K | Proven+$5.52 per $100 · 363 bets |
| LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a | December 31, 2026 | $4.3K | Proven+$10.70 per $100 · 391 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.