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Topic · Geopolitics
4 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.1% of Polymarket
Events · markets
2 · 4
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
2 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
Proven traders lean No on December 31, 2026 · 2 of the top 10 books. Proven means 100+ settled bets, more than $2 made per $100 and beating the odds when held.
Yes minus No · across the 4 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| NeH0x11fc…dc48 | No on December 31, 2026 | $47.0K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 159 bets |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:25 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| Donny.T0x8190…b247 |
| No on December 31, 2026 |
| $46.8K |
| Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 764 bets |
| gorovi0x1de9…831d | No on December 31, 2026 | $30.4K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 398 bets |
| Scoofy-Bubik0x709a…7e39 | No on December 31, 2026 | $22.7K | New83 bets |
| VladimirPooper0xa53e…218d | No on December 31, 2026 | $17.8K | – |
| TronOG0x77c3…00c8 | No on December 31, 2026 | $14.3K | Proven+$3.07 per $100 · 404 bets |
| DFK0x0dde…94c3 | No on December 31, 2026 | $9.1K | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 713 bets |
| megafom0xb3bd…f543 | No on December 31, 2026 | $6.8K | – |
| Jerzy0x5943…2ef2 | No on December 31, 2026 | $5.6K | Proven+$5.52 per $100 · 363 bets |
| LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a | December 31, 2026 | $4.3K | Proven+$10.70 per $100 · 391 bets |
| yevhenry0x0164…9ed6 | No on December 31, 2026 | $3.3K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| prognozu0x8199…bb6d | No on December 31, 2026 | $2.5K | – |
| cocoico3o0xd694…3fa0 | No on December 31, 2026 | $2.2K | – |
| hellokitty1170x6f56…075d | No on December 31, 2026 | $2.1K | – |
| Kwon1230x5da1…54a3 | No on December 31, 2026 | $2.1K | – |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | No on December 31, 2026 | $2.0K | Proven+$14.85 per $100 · 244 bets |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b040x9507…7b04 | No on December 31, 2026 | $1.9K | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 3,709 bets |
| ScientiaRex0x8f0b…8be2 | No on December 31, 2026 | $1.8K | – |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | No on December 31, 2026 | $1.7K | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| 0xd54d…1adc | December 31, 2026 | $1.6K | – |
| ausername0xfef5…c8a6 | No on December 31, 2026 | $1.5K | – |
| Jchan29470x7cda…8832 | No on December 31, 2026 | $1.4K | – |
| whysoslow0x8a98…2619 | December 31, 2026 | $1.1K | New0 bets |
| Muookjh0xc98b…c581 | December 31, 2026 | $867 | – |
| UniversalCarrier0x56b1…0e9f | December 31, 2026 | $823 | New56 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.