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Topic · Geopolitics
443 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
9.6% of Polymarket
Events · markets
115 · 443
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 83.5¢ | down 1 point this week | $7.18M |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 14:36 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| No |
| 94.5¢ |
| up 1 point this week |
| $4.65M |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | March 31 | 65.0¢ | down 6 points this week | $2.89M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 83.5¢ | up 3 points this week | $1.60M |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | December 31 | 14.5¢ | up 1 point this week | $1.55M |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? | December 31 | 15.5¢ | down 2 points this week | $1.18M |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | October 12 | 96.7¢ | up 9.2 points this week | $1.14M |
| Iran leadership change by...? | June 30, 2027 | 22.5¢ | – | $1.12M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 99.2¢ | up 1.9 points this week | $1.03M |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? | October 15 | 95.7¢ | – | $0.92M |
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $802.7K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $791.1K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No on December 31 | $680.6K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,049 bets |
| LulaVaiPerder0x7f9e…3a0e | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $444.4K | Proven+$9.82 per $100 · 434 bets |
| scout0x2d99…4ca3 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $321.3K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 1,011 bets |
| Trump20280x2e0b…8070 | No on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 | $314.3K | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 554 bets |
| Erasmus.0xc658…b784 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $269.5K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 875 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No on October 31 | $218.8K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
| rdba0xc4d1…8ce8 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $208.8K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 302 bets |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $200.4K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.