Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Decided by

Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz of 60 or more for any date from market creation to October 31,…§1

No final data

If no data for the final date is published within 14 calendar days (ET) after the period ends, the market resolves on data published up to that point.§6

Data integrity issues

For obvious data integrity issues, the market may stay open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the data is first released, to allow corrections.§10

Revisions timing

Revisions within the market's timeframe are considered, but revisions published after data for October 31, 2026 are not.§7

Counted

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.§3

Source

IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, in the chart…§12

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.