October 15

Decided by

"Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through 11:59 PM IRST on the listed date.§1

Qualifying action

Ceasefire is no longer in effect if either country takes a qualifying military action against the other before the listed date.§3

Qualifying defined

A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike by Israel or Iran that directly impacts the other country.§4

Impact defined

A strike impacts Israel or Iran if it directly hits their terrestrial territory, including internal waters; maritime territory and airspace do not count.§19

Counted

Air strikes, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones; surface-to-surface missile strikes, including one-way attack drones and cruise…§5

Source

Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.§27

Closes

Oct 16, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• October 15 95.9¢
• October 31 85.5¢
• November 15 74.5¢
• November 30 63.5¢
• December 31 57.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.