Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
Chance of Yes
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5 outcomes
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Ends
Oct 16
in 4 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?”.
§1This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
§2Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
§3A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
§4A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country.
§5An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
§6A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
§7The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
§8Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:05 UTC. Not financial advice.
§9Surface-to-air missile strikes;
§10Small-arms fire;
§11Ground incursions;
§12Cyber operations;
§13Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
§14Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
§15Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
§16Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
§17Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.
§18Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
§19A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters.
§20Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.
§21Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
§22The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
§23Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
§24If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.
§25If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
§26No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
§27The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
"Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through 11:59 PM IRST on the listed date.§1
Qualifying action
Ceasefire is no longer in effect if either country takes a qualifying military action against the other before the listed date.§3
Qualifying defined
A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike by Israel or Iran that directly impacts the other country.§4
Impact defined
A strike impacts Israel or Iran if it directly hits their terrestrial territory, including internal waters; maritime territory and airspace do not count.§19
Counted
Air strikes, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones; surface-to-surface missile strikes, including one-way attack drones and cruise…§5
Source
Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.§27
Closes
Oct 16, 2026 · 03:59 UTC
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.