Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:03 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
14 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LulaVaiPerder0x7f9e…3a0e | Yes | 81,509 | 95.5¢ | $78.2K | Proven+$9.82 per $100 · 435 bets |
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | Yes | 36,429 | 94.8¢ | $34.9K | Proven+$11.66 per $100 · 471 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 17,354 | 93.3¢ | $16.6K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 15,120 | 95.1¢ | $14.5K | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | Yes | 12,000 | 95.0¢ | $11.5K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 8,520 | 93.0¢ | $8.17K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| CaptainCoinflip0xb8fe…ce76 | Yes | 7,926 | 95.2¢ | $7.6K | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 743 bets |
| laureman0x1359…092e | Yes | 7,215 | 94.6¢ | $6.92K | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 112 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | Yes | 6,496 | 94.0¢ | $6.23K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| SuperavitFiscal0xeb49…693e | Yes | 5,119 | 95.0¢ | $4.91K | Losing−$5.42 per $100 · 344 bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | Yes | 4,246 | 95.6¢ | $4.07K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| 0x3fd0…0022 | Yes | 3,890 | 96.5¢ | $3.73K | Losing−$1.42 per $100 · 223 bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | Yes | 3,346 | 94.2¢ | $3.21K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 3,192 | 93.7¢ | $3.06K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 3,120 | 93.7¢ | $2.99K | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | Yes | 3,062 | 95.6¢ | $2.94K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| Sardinianshepherd0xf42f…a6a7 | Yes | 3,008 | 93.7¢ | $2.88K | Proven+$5.08 per $100 · 1,737 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | Yes | 3,000 | 93.2¢ | $2.88K | Proven+$6.06 per $100 · 622 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | Yes | 2,792 | 95.9¢ | $2.68K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,956 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 2,500 | 93.5¢ | $2.4K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| brk20160xeb89…9469 | Yes | 2,500 | 96.5¢ | $2.4K | — |
| prophet-spaces0x2dd2…d5d8 | Yes | 2,366 | 95.6¢ | $2.27K | New82 settled bets |
| Rex4160x9a3f…914a | Yes | 2,350 | 93.4¢ | $2.25K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 6,881 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | Yes | 2,000 | 96.0¢ | $1.92K | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| Detbet0x8cb7…66e3 | Yes | 2,000 | 94.7¢ | $1.92K | New74 settled bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 1,903 | 93.9¢ | $1.82K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 44,000 | 5.3¢ | $1.8K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,789 | 94.8¢ | $1.72K | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,033 bets |
| 0xd640…480c | No | 37,169 | 4.7¢ | $1.52K | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| SleeperHunter0x606f…1083 | Yes | 1,531 | 92.7¢ | $1.47K | Positive+$1.81 per $100 · 377 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 1,523 | 94.0¢ | $1.46K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| WillBeQuant0xc6be…a0f3 | Yes | 1,095 | 95.2¢ | $1.05K | Proven+$3.41 per $100 · 682 bets |
| Ronen-6160xbad7…0e24 | Yes | 981 | 95.9¢ | $941 | New4 settled bets |
| Mongol11310xdcbd…9a0b | No | 21,314 | 4.7¢ | $874 | — |
| G.laila0xa092…11e3 | Yes | 900 | 95.1¢ | $863 | Break-even+$0.68 per $100 · 414 bets |
| Shawata180xa1b9…5e00 | No | 16,731 | 4.8¢ | $686 | — |
| hivemindilan0xf958…238c | No | 16,397 | 6.2¢ | $672 | — |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | No | 14,294 | 6.6¢ | $586 | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| HMRevenueandCustoms0x0d05…6a81 | No | 13,754 | 4.7¢ | $564 | — |
| theitaliangoats0x217a…86db | Yes | 526 | 95.0¢ | $505 | — |
| geowatch0x5645…5d21 | Yes | 522 | 95.8¢ | $500 | — |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 500 | 95.7¢ | $480 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 500 | 93.0¢ | $480 | — |
| ZhouSir10x9876…1e66 | Yes | 500 | 94.0¢ | $479 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 213 bets |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | No | 11,284 | 6.0¢ | $463 | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 772 bets |
| frenchflair50x2ce9…5fc6 | Yes | 401 | 95.3¢ | $384 | New46 settled bets |
| TREC20x3231…d6d4 | No | 9,278 | 4.3¢ | $380 | — |
| hping020x9e25…afd6 | Yes | 310 | 93.1¢ | $297 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | Yes | 307 | 94.7¢ | $294 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 300 | 93.0¢ | $288 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| Mst-br0xdda5…c82a | Yes | 300 | 95.7¢ | $288 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 274 | 94.3¢ | $262 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| pilipro30x33e2…3a1b | Yes | 243 | 91.7¢ | $233 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,022 bets |
| 0x23a0…8c4a | No | 5,221 | 7.7¢ | $214 | — |
| artik2020wallamenchi0x5c69…51ca | No | 5,060 | 6.5¢ | $207 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 210 | 94.6¢ | $201 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| Dragontree0x2c39…56dc | Yes | 205 | 95.0¢ | $197 | Proven+$2.69 per $100 · 3,239 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | Yes | 186 | 93.8¢ | $179 | — |
| TheVeiledOne0x42a8…70a5 | No | 4,251 | 5.9¢ | $174 | — |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | Yes | 179 | 92.6¢ | $171 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 6,486 bets |
| 0x9865…57ac | No | 3,919 | 6.9¢ | $161 | — |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | Yes | 160 | 94.0¢ | $153 | — |
| rozemoney020xa20a…ed3a | No | 3,613 | 8.4¢ | $148 | — |
| Maxfyx0x9387…674e | Yes | 146 | 95.7¢ | $140 | — |
| Hatuli0x30ec…03a1 | No | 3,198 | 3.5¢ | $131 | — |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | No | 3,086 | 4.2¢ | $127 | Proven+$6.73 per $100 · 6,671 bets |
| 0x068a…c83c | No | 2,871 | 7.0¢ | $118 | — |
| AYTLS0x6c92…9627 | No | 2,573 | 7.0¢ | $105 | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 2,222 | 7.0¢ | $91 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| 0x3925…d2f2 | No | 2,000 | 3.9¢ | $82 | — |
| leeroy20060xa497…f44a | No | 1,956 | 6.1¢ | $80 | — |
| naknik0x4863…0547 | No | 1,852 | 5.4¢ | $76 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 1,728 | 4.2¢ | $71 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0xd9b0…3c75 | No | 1,667 | 6.0¢ | $68 | — |
| MEPGRIM0xab3d…92ef | No | 1,600 | 5.0¢ | $66 | — |
| 0x3da4…b509 | No | 1,591 | 6.3¢ | $65 | — |
| 0x1ffc…be61 | No | 1,500 | 5.3¢ | $62 | — |
| Marom.ah0x593c…235a | No | 1,455 | 6.9¢ | $60 | — |
| 0x3960…0975 | No | 1,271 | 5.0¢ | $52 | — |
| abdoohl0x8e4f…4594 | No | 1,267 | 5.8¢ | $52 | — |
| 0x3e59…b2be | No | 1,250 | 8.0¢ | $51 | Losing−$22.45 per $100 · 1,060 bets |
| Spirit-LT0x1851…ae47 | No | 1,110 | 3.9¢ | $46 | — |
| filaretou0x5a77…f859 | No | 1,081 | 6.0¢ | $44 | — |
| Zibioly0xfdc7…b45a | No | 1,006 | 5.0¢ | $41 | — |
| 0x30e9…dfeb | No | 1,000 | 7.0¢ | $41 | — |
| Bento-true0x6e00…765e | No | 1,000 | 5.0¢ | $41 | — |
| 0xb9b2…f266 | No | 1,000 | 5.2¢ | $41 | — |
| Bilal950x5f57…61e5 | No | 947 | 5.0¢ | $39 | — |
| 0x69d2…9b39 | No | 903 | 7.5¢ | $37 | — |
| 0x68d3…a297 | No | 637 | 4.9¢ | $26 | — |
| Lastworld130x0c18…a04c | No | 627 | 5.3¢ | $26 | — |
| yoozzz0x3b08…497e | No | 623 | 8.0¢ | $26 | — |
| whichtopick0x6098…c419 | No | 569 | 8.4¢ | $23 | — |
| 0xc417…83a1 | No | 526 | 8.0¢ | $22 | — |
| 0xaba6…a7bd | No | 501 | 4.7¢ | $21 | — |
| Fullvie0x6286…f59c | No | 500 | 4.8¢ | $21 | — |
| adasol0x5297…7b99 | No | 484 | 4.1¢ | $20 | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 486 bets |
| TheSwedishWolf0x0faf…d0d9 | No | 412 | 6.9¢ | $17 | Break-even−$0.87 per $100 · 811 bets |
| Avitz330x7a90…2ff9 | No | 400 | 5.0¢ | $16 | Proven+$13.01 per $100 · 1,255 bets |
| arielabadi9910x42f3…234b | No | 333 | 6.0¢ | $14 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.