October 31

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if a state of ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST; otherwise "No".§1

Ceasefire broken

Ceasefire is no longer in effect if Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other between market creation and the listed date.§3

Qualifying action

A qualifying military action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike by Israel or Iran that directly impacts the other country.§4

Intercepted munitions

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact, and debris or wreckage from them, are not military actions, whatever the damage.§8

Conflicting reports

Where sources conflict, the market stays open until consensus or 3 full calendar days (IRST) from first credibly reported evidence.§23

Counted

A qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike by Israel or Iran that directly impacts the other country's terrestrial territory.§19

Source

Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.§27

Closes

Oct 31, 2026 · 20:29 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• October 15 95.9¢
• October 31 85.5¢
• November 15 74.5¢
• November 30 63.5¢
• December 31 57.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.