December 31

Decided by

Market resolves "Yes" if a state of ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.§1

Qualifying action ends it

Ceasefire is no longer in effect if Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country before the listed date.§3

Impacts territory only

An action impacts Israel or Iran only if it directly impacts their terrestrial territory, including internal waters.§19

Conflicting reports

If sources conflict, the market stays open until consensus or 3 full calendar days (IRST) from first credible evidence.§23

Open past end date

If that period would extend past the end date, the market stays open to allow 3 full calendar days to pass.§24

Counted

A qualifying military action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike by Israel or Iran that directly impacts the other country.§4

Source

Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.§27

Closes

Dec 31, 2026 · 20:29 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• October 15 95.5¢
• October 31 85.5¢
• November 15 74.5¢
• November 30 63.5¢
• December 31 57.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.