Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
20 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52centis0xcb4c…6d64 | No | 60,719 | 39.1¢ | $26.4K | Losing−$12.98 per $100 · 182 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 46,276 | 65.1¢ | $26.1K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| EasyGoingA0xc390…2a1f | No | 32,540 | 39.4¢ | $14.2K | Proven+$13.15 per $100 · 320 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | Yes | 22,000 | 63.1¢ | $12.4K | Proven+$4.92 per $100 · 2,289 bets |
| JSG30x0191…541d | Yes | 20,000 | 63.0¢ | $11.3K | New18 settled bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 18,000 | 33.9¢ | $7.83K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| pakukudolphi0x88e2…7489 | Yes | 9,653 | 60.0¢ | $5.45K | Proven+$5.66 per $100 · 278 bets |
| 0x91c3…409f | No | 12,436 | 40.2¢ | $5.41K | New0 settled bets |
| Hossein-m0xd726…b5c9 | No | 12,000 | 37.5¢ | $5.22K | — |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 10,973 | 39.9¢ | $4.77K | Positive+$3.91 per $100 · 1,963 bets |
| Sardinianshepherd0xf42f…a6a7 | Yes | 7,884 | 66.1¢ | $4.45K | Proven+$5.08 per $100 · 1,737 bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | No | 9,760 | 34.9¢ | $4.25K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| skibabiba0x79d9…baec | Yes | 7,000 | 61.0¢ | $3.95K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 116 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 6,509 | 64.0¢ | $3.68K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| de5nuts0x80a0…5708 | No | 8,401 | 36.1¢ | $3.65K | Proven+$9.80 per $100 · 336 bets |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | Yes | 6,000 | 70.2¢ | $3.39K | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | No | 7,695 | 39.0¢ | $3.35K | New55 settled bets |
| qizhan10xcb84…4fbc | Yes | 5,752 | 61.5¢ | $3.25K | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 674 bets |
| kaninkungen0xa6f7…8545 | Yes | 5,745 | 64.1¢ | $3.25K | — |
| Mr-Krabs0x8597…daee | Yes | 5,193 | 61.0¢ | $2.93K | Positive+$1.83 per $100 · 838 bets |
| segment30xa10c…b2de | Yes | 5,000 | 62.0¢ | $2.82K | New2 settled bets |
| rerevervadae4r3453214tpermdr43fvd0x09cc…421a | Yes | 4,787 | 62.1¢ | $2.7K | Proven+$34.15 per $100 · 687 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 4,699 | 66.1¢ | $2.66K | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| Giannis20260xe5b4…1e3e | Yes | 4,000 | 61.4¢ | $2.26K | Proven+$13.43 per $100 · 350 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | Yes | 4,000 | 60.7¢ | $2.26K | Proven+$6.06 per $100 · 622 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 3,810 | 65.6¢ | $2.15K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| 0x0bb9…9725 | No | 4,903 | 41.7¢ | $2.13K | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 4,624 | 36.1¢ | $2.01K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | Yes | 3,522 | 58.4¢ | $1.99K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 3,249 | 68.3¢ | $1.84K | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 3,220 | 62.6¢ | $1.82K | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 126,571+ bets · updating |
| agagyu0x2136…ee56 | Yes | 2,941 | 70.0¢ | $1.66K | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 178 bets |
| katbot0x3007…763a | Yes | 2,777 | 62.9¢ | $1.57K | Positive+$3.17 per $100 · 158 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 3,473 | 35.4¢ | $1.51K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | Yes | 2,497 | 64.7¢ | $1.41K | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 2,966 bets |
| k00pa0xa289…d95c | Yes | 2,400 | 67.5¢ | $1.36K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 394 bets |
| Zaratustra0x7818…d185 | Yes | 2,070 | 62.5¢ | $1.17K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 714 bets |
| SleeperHunter0x606f…1083 | Yes | 2,000 | 68.0¢ | $1.13K | Positive+$1.81 per $100 · 377 bets |
| cocobobo0x6122…fc91 | Yes | 1,800 | 63.2¢ | $1.02K | New48 settled bets |
| 0xefce…4e4a | Yes | 1,791 | 67.0¢ | $1.01K | — |
| AlphaGooo0xfc55…b21d | No | 2,256 | 42.7¢ | $981 | — |
| Mst-br0xdda5…c82a | Yes | 1,700 | 62.5¢ | $960 | — |
| FEAROFWHAT0x3437…f8f3 | Yes | 1,650 | 61.8¢ | $932 | Proven+$2.61 per $100 · 624 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 1,599 | 66.6¢ | $903 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 1,500 | 65.4¢ | $847 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| 123454320xe2cd…3897 | Yes | 1,424 | 69.0¢ | $805 | — |
| 0x223b…85df | No | 1,780 | 31.0¢ | $774 | — |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | Yes | 1,343 | 48.6¢ | $759 | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 1,688 | 34.2¢ | $734 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| filthymudeok0xbbe3…5b92 | No | 1,663 | 38.4¢ | $723 | Losing−$11.70 per $100 · 325 bets |
| Umaroth0xefde…783d | No | 1,535 | 41.3¢ | $668 | Break-even+$0.51 per $100 · 4,270 bets |
| Hadikhan690xbb5e…b8c7 | No | 1,470 | 36.3¢ | $639 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 1,116 | 65.2¢ | $631 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,913 bets |
| bosshog0x47ab…95df | Yes | 1,000 | 64.0¢ | $565 | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,839 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 1,000 | 57.0¢ | $565 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,039 bets |
| 0x598e…9d4f | Yes | 968 | 62.0¢ | $547 | New95 settled bets |
| whichtopick0x6098…c419 | No | 1,250 | 32.0¢ | $544 | — |
| is10xeed9…7405 | No | 1,205 | 50.0¢ | $524 | — |
| 0xd640…480c | No | 1,104 | 43.0¢ | $480 | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | No | 1,069 | 41.0¢ | $465 | Proven+$5.20 per $100 · 2,221 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 1,052 | 40.3¢ | $457 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| DAkostya0xd6d3…161c | Yes | 806 | 62.3¢ | $455 | — |
| F00Fi0x12ce…928f | Yes | 785 | 65.0¢ | $443 | Proven+$4.94 per $100 · 254 bets |
| UniversalCarrier0x56b1…0e9f | No | 1,000 | 32.9¢ | $435 | New56 settled bets |
| Xzibit690x0af4…89b4 | Yes | 750 | 63.0¢ | $424 | Proven+$5.57 per $100 · 707 bets |
| 0xa957…50e4 | No | 857 | 35.0¢ | $373 | New18 settled bets |
| 0x0dcc…d87c | No | 850 | 43.9¢ | $370 | Proven+$7.25 per $100 · 184 bets |
| Thewindblows0x3cbd…d7a6 | No | 848 | 47.1¢ | $369 | — |
| Coldonn1010xe6fd…8bc3 | Yes | 645 | 58.0¢ | $364 | — |
| thx4playing0xe827…5209 | No | 821 | 36.0¢ | $357 | — |
| Cungly0x5ccf…79d7 | No | 814 | 40.0¢ | $354 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,625 bets |
| GodRama0x8b72…6dbe | No | 777 | 35.0¢ | $338 | Positive+$4.43 per $100 · 3,463 bets |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | Yes | 517 | 58.0¢ | $292 | — |
| breakingcute0x7dff…1f35 | Yes | 500 | 63.8¢ | $283 | — |
| DawnOfYemen0xc34a…6007 | Yes | 500 | 66.8¢ | $282 | Proven+$3.27 per $100 · 1,824 bets |
| sqaolkytrpoi0xd6dd…98ee | No | 643 | 40.8¢ | $280 | Proven+$5.99 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| Mikelaawrey0x6bc7…4ad4 | No | 600 | 39.7¢ | $261 | — |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 600 | 37.0¢ | $261 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| sucuk-mit-ei0xacea…8b97 | No | 600 | 54.7¢ | $261 | — |
| chaimaaron0x5abe…0b32 | No | 571 | 35.0¢ | $249 | — |
| doubleone20xff91…ab3a | Yes | 424 | 58.5¢ | $239 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 833 bets |
| ansatz0x5fa4…cd4e | Yes | 421 | 70.0¢ | $238 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 320 bets |
| Shijiebeiii0xbb59…6ca3 | No | 541 | 37.0¢ | $235 | — |
| Ak1ra-0x9f6c…d781 | No | 536 | 45.0¢ | $233 | — |
| 0xc756…0f2e | No | 534 | 37.4¢ | $232 | — |
| Glicha0x91ff…8f40 | Yes | 410 | 61.9¢ | $232 | — |
| Jtrader0x481d…48cf | Yes | 400 | 61.0¢ | $226 | — |
| 0x919d…60e1 | Yes | 400 | 58.0¢ | $226 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 1,345 bets |
| PMplayer0x174b…5a55 | No | 504 | 37.9¢ | $219 | — |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | No | 500 | 35.2¢ | $218 | — |
| DanRonSantis0x86c2…41be | No | 499 | 32.0¢ | $217 | Proven+$7.41 per $100 · 140 bets |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9 | No | 484 | 31.0¢ | $210 | New63 settled bets |
| ynadinsky0x2ff6…7c7b | No | 453 | 44.1¢ | $197 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | No | 444 | 42.3¢ | $193 | — |
| 0x9897…eb2a | No | 400 | 38.9¢ | $174 | — |
| numerology0xabd3…637f | No | 352 | 44.4¢ | $153 | — |
| purify0xeb28…3694 | No | 300 | 36.0¢ | $131 | — |
| Ccc0x381f…bc99 | No | 297 | 39.1¢ | $129 | — |
| 0x3b08…def3 | No | 294 | 34.0¢ | $128 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.