Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
14 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | Yes | 81,292 | 84.0¢ | $69.5K | Proven+$11.66 per $100 · 471 bets |
| 657657570x2974…9c23 | Yes | 52,423 | 84.9¢ | $44.8K | Proven+$6.14 per $100 · 376 bets |
| noib0x187f…5fee | Yes | 18,099 | 83.0¢ | $15.5K | Positive+$5.43 per $100 · 215 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | Yes | 17,663 | 84.7¢ | $15.1K | Proven+$4.92 per $100 · 2,289 bets |
| SuperavitFiscal0xeb49…693e | Yes | 17,009 | 82.0¢ | $14.5K | Losing−$5.42 per $100 · 344 bets |
| 0x6bab…0fe5 | Yes | 15,693 | 79.4¢ | $13.4K | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 371 bets |
| katbot0x3007…763a | Yes | 12,518 | 80.7¢ | $10.7K | Positive+$3.17 per $100 · 158 bets |
| Mr-Krabs0x8597…daee | Yes | 10,716 | 75.1¢ | $9.16K | Positive+$1.83 per $100 · 838 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | Yes | 8,690 | 82.1¢ | $7.43K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| 52centis0xcb4c…6d64 | No | 50,576 | 23.2¢ | $7.33K | Losing−$12.98 per $100 · 182 bets |
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | Yes | 7,117 | 84.7¢ | $6.08K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| razrin30x3908…2b2c | No | 41,768 | 15.3¢ | $6.06K | — |
| nope30500x6114…cff0 | Yes | 6,600 | 83.5¢ | $5.64K | — |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 6,587 | 85.8¢ | $5.63K | Positive+$3.91 per $100 · 1,963 bets |
| Sardinianshepherd0xf42f…a6a7 | Yes | 6,197 | 80.8¢ | $5.3K | Proven+$5.08 per $100 · 1,737 bets |
| laureman0x1359…092e | Yes | 5,568 | 85.3¢ | $4.76K | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 112 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 31,750 | 17.1¢ | $4.6K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | Yes | 5,300 | 85.6¢ | $4.53K | New60 settled bets |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | No | 30,000 | 17.5¢ | $4.35K | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| GOLADS960x894d…04e2 | Yes | 5,000 | 83.0¢ | $4.28K | New56 settled bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | Yes | 5,000 | 81.4¢ | $4.27K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | Yes | 5,000 | 83.1¢ | $4.27K | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| Dragontree0x2c39…56dc | Yes | 4,874 | 84.8¢ | $4.17K | Proven+$2.69 per $100 · 3,239 bets |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | Yes | 4,812 | 70.5¢ | $4.11K | New55 settled bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 4,259 | 69.5¢ | $3.64K | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| G.laila0xa092…11e3 | Yes | 4,208 | 81.9¢ | $3.6K | Break-even+$0.68 per $100 · 414 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 4,088 | 85.1¢ | $3.5K | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 126,571+ bets · updating |
| SquirrelTheMerchant0xfb59…83f9 | Yes | 3,739 | 79.2¢ | $3.2K | Proven+$19.44 per $100 · 263 bets |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | Yes | 3,400 | 83.0¢ | $2.91K | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 19,695 | 14.3¢ | $2.86K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| nedsta0xf92a…a517 | Yes | 3,314 | 81.9¢ | $2.83K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 466 bets |
| Detbet0x8cb7…66e3 | Yes | 3,162 | 80.9¢ | $2.7K | New74 settled bets |
| ManAreBrave0x58c6…d759 | No | 17,971 | 18.6¢ | $2.61K | — |
| segment30xa10c…b2de | Yes | 3,000 | 83.0¢ | $2.56K | New2 settled bets |
| Noname3330x6c17…6a7e | Yes | 2,491 | 76.3¢ | $2.13K | — |
| parachute0x0x98e6…42e7 | Yes | 2,450 | 84.6¢ | $2.09K | — |
| EMJ0x2ffe…ab99 | No | 14,046 | 17.9¢ | $2.04K | — |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | Yes | 2,075 | 83.1¢ | $1.77K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| 0xc961…db04 | No | 12,000 | 26.1¢ | $1.74K | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 103 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 2,020 | 82.7¢ | $1.73K | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| balabalababalabala0x2779…239a | Yes | 2,000 | 87.0¢ | $1.71K | — |
| Smart-bettor70x7845…417b | Yes | 2,000 | 79.0¢ | $1.71K | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 525 bets |
| Ty564r0x5b5e…30d3 | Yes | 1,922 | 79.0¢ | $1.64K | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 1,900 | 70.0¢ | $1.62K | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| RogerFed0xe958…66b7 | Yes | 1,900 | 83.2¢ | $1.62K | — |
| tatimatidaoc0x85fa…d2c6 | No | 10,354 | 22.3¢ | $1.5K | — |
| 0x8aaa…51df | No | 10,176 | 19.6¢ | $1.48K | Positive+$32.08 per $100 · 220 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 1,600 | 84.2¢ | $1.37K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| 0xffd3…7c75 | Yes | 1,596 | 81.4¢ | $1.36K | Proven+$18.43 per $100 · 112 bets |
| totti820x5f83…5dc1 | Yes | 1,566 | 74.7¢ | $1.34K | — |
| 0x9865…57ac | No | 9,150 | 17.5¢ | $1.33K | — |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | No | 9,007 | 26.3¢ | $1.31K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| OkieDokiePeon0x9ddf…2c83 | Yes | 1,500 | 85.0¢ | $1.28K | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 2,178 bets |
| Everestpredictions0xceca…3f67 | Yes | 1,489 | 77.9¢ | $1.27K | Break-even−$0.24 per $100 · 817 bets |
| BwTrump0x01d1…12a4 | No | 8,571 | 14.0¢ | $1.24K | — |
| Fr5660x6abf…0d4a | Yes | 1,400 | 80.1¢ | $1.2K | — |
| oculus10xe168…e559 | Yes | 1,290 | 81.0¢ | $1.1K | — |
| cocobobo0x6122…fc91 | Yes | 1,280 | 85.0¢ | $1.09K | New48 settled bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | Yes | 1,200 | 78.5¢ | $1.03K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| 0x94ce…a9fa | No | 7,000 | 17.0¢ | $1.01K | — |
| 0xce83…5b97 | Yes | 1,177 | 84.9¢ | $1.01K | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 1,168 | 80.6¢ | $999 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,913 bets |
| garlictrump0x6630…2f4e | Yes | 1,000 | 79.0¢ | $855 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 547 bets |
| WhatTheHelly0xe471…c87c | No | 5,805 | 18.4¢ | $842 | Positive+$8.80 per $100 · 1,202 bets |
| Makeitsimple0xe20a…a130 | No | 5,016 | 19.9¢ | $727 | — |
| OldZz0x298b…f406 | No | 4,600 | 13.0¢ | $667 | Losing−$10.84 per $100 · 225 bets |
| 0x93b4…909d | No | 4,005 | 22.6¢ | $581 | — |
| 0xd640…480c | No | 3,997 | 15.0¢ | $580 | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| kohalacoastgabe0x63e3…f341 | No | 3,749 | 26.7¢ | $544 | Losing−$5.29 per $100 · 292 bets |
| cashy0x8f42…b88f | No | 3,351 | 16.3¢ | $486 | Proven+$11.86 per $100 · 1,051 bets |
| gods-eye0x1086…27d2 | No | 2,900 | 17.0¢ | $420 | New67 settled bets |
| 0x3925…d2f2 | No | 2,684 | 15.4¢ | $389 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 2,399 | 32.3¢ | $348 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| Kravada0x17e0…a8c0 | No | 2,381 | 21.0¢ | $345 | — |
| abdoohl0x8e4f…4594 | No | 2,269 | 16.2¢ | $329 | — |
| OnlyInGodWeTrust0x0785…ecb4 | No | 2,260 | 18.6¢ | $328 | — |
| vincentfire0x7144…6624 | No | 2,233 | 17.1¢ | $324 | New92 settled bets |
| shay7770x7ac8…a564 | No | 2,037 | 20.0¢ | $295 | — |
| AYTLS0x6c92…9627 | No | 2,004 | 18.0¢ | $291 | — |
| 0x83e9…9f08 | No | 2,000 | 15.0¢ | $290 | New58 settled bets |
| Shawata180xa1b9…5e00 | No | 2,000 | 15.0¢ | $290 | — |
| ns1390xbd87…6bf9 | No | 2,000 | 15.0¢ | $290 | — |
| 0x44a4…34b1 | No | 1,852 | 27.0¢ | $269 | — |
| 0xc6c5…6f9c | No | 1,818 | 22.0¢ | $264 | — |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 1,793 | 20.3¢ | $260 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| 0xa957…50e4 | No | 1,765 | 17.0¢ | $256 | New18 settled bets |
| suraxy0xa9ac…c5d1 | No | 1,731 | 15.1¢ | $251 | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 2,851 bets |
| simbarashejm0x3453…8251 | No | 1,400 | 24.0¢ | $203 | — |
| 0x223b…85df | No | 1,400 | 17.8¢ | $203 | — |
| peepee674200xb09d…0b70 | No | 1,286 | 21.0¢ | $186 | — |
| chayichou0xbe5c…f8db | No | 1,285 | 26.0¢ | $186 | — |
| TherealMrblue0x2432…3ef5 | No | 1,281 | 14.0¢ | $186 | New25 settled bets |
| Rowwak0x311a…7dab | No | 1,200 | 16.0¢ | $174 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | No | 1,200 | 18.5¢ | $174 | — |
| 0x907c…c68b | No | 1,139 | 17.0¢ | $165 | — |
| Fullvie0x6286…f59c | No | 1,100 | 19.1¢ | $159 | — |
| IceWindL0xdae6…e440 | No | 1,094 | 17.3¢ | $159 | Proven+$7.53 per $100 · 261 bets |
| Danny6700x9607…2c7b | No | 1,072 | 17.7¢ | $156 | — |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | No | 943 | 18.1¢ | $137 | Losing−$7.14 per $100 · 15,901 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.