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Topic · Geopolitics
457 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
9.6% of Polymarket
Events · markets
119 · 457
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
Biggest first · chance of Yes
| Market | Event | Chance | This week | Ends | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 16.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $7.17M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:03 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
| 5.5¢ |
| down 1 point this week |
| Jan 1 |
| $4.66M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 15.0¢ | down 4.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $1.62M |
| October 31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | 13.5¢ | down 9 points this week | Nov 1 | $1.22M |
| December 31 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | 14.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $1.19M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | 0.9¢ | down 2.2 points this week | Nov 1 | $1.03M |
| December 31 | Iran leadership change by...? | 11.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $0.93M |
| December 31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | 43.5¢ | down 9.4 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.87M |
| October 15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | 3.8¢ | down 9.7 points this week | Oct 16 | $0.81M |
| December 31 | Crude Oil all time high by...? | 10.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $0.69M |
| December 31 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? | 15.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $0.67M |
| December 31 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? | 3.4¢ | down 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $0.61M |
| October 31 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? | 6.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 1 | $0.51M |
| October 31 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 78.5¢ | up 7 points this week | Oct 31 | $0.45M |
| October 31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 85.5¢ | up 2 points this week | Oct 31 | $0.43M |
| December 31 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? | 5.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $0.40M |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | 2.8¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.35M |
| October 31 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | 1.7¢ | down 1.7 points this week | Nov 1 | $0.31M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | 6.5¢ | down 3 points this week | Dec 1 | $0.30M |
| October 12 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 96.8¢ | up 6.3 points this week | Oct 13 | $0.28M |
| December 31 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? | 6.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $0.26M |
| December 31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 57.5¢ | down 5 points this week | Dec 31 | $0.25M |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | 11.0¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.23M |
| October 15 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 92.5¢ | up 7 points this week | Oct 16 | $0.21M |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | 19.0¢ | down 2.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.19M |
| October 31 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? | 7.0¢ | down 2 points this week | Nov 1 | $0.18M |
| December 31 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? | 2.5¢ | down 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.18M |
| October 31 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? | 13.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Oct 31 | $0.16M |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | Iran leader end of 2026? | 87.3¢ | down 0.2 points this week | Dec 31 | $0.14M |
| November 30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 63.5¢ | down 7.5 points this week | Nov 30 | $0.13M |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | 2.9¢ | down 0.9 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.12M |
| December 31 | Iran full airspace closure by...? | 26.0¢ | up 7 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.12M |
| Mohammad Khatami | Iran leader end of 2026? | 0.1¢ | – | Dec 31 | $0.11M |
| October 31 | Iran leadership change by...? | 2.1¢ | up 0.4 points this week | Nov 1 | $0.10M |
| October 15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 95.5¢ | – | Oct 16 | $0.10M |
| November 30 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 42.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Nov 30 | $92.6K |
| December 31 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? | 17.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $87.9K |
| December 31 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 33.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Dec 31 | $84.6K |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | 12.1¢ | up 1.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $78.9K |
| October 31 | Houthis enter Aden by...? | 5.9¢ | down 2.6 points this week | Nov 1 | $77.1K |
| Seyed Hossein Mousavian | Iran leader end of 2026? | 0.1¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Dec 31 | $76.4K |
| Mostafa Pourmohammadi | Iran leader end of 2026? | 0.1¢ | – | Dec 31 | $69.3K |
| June 30, 2027 | Iran leadership change by...? | 22.5¢ | – | Jul 1 | $66.4K |
| Hassan Shariatmadari | Iran leader end of 2026? | 0.1¢ | – | Dec 31 | $65.1K |
| October 31 | Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | 7.5¢ | – | Nov 1 | $64.1K |
| Venezuela | Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? | 17.0¢ | – | Jan 1 | $61.4K |
| Iran Reconstruction Funding | What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 8.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $56.0K |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | 3.5¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $55.0K |
| October 15 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? | 1.6¢ | down 5.9 points this week | Oct 16 | $53.3K |
| October 31 | Iran full airspace closure by...? | 6.5¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Nov 1 | $51.5K |