Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 24 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 211,987 | 86.1¢ | $188K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 42,808 | 88.3¢ | $37.9K | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 30,751 | 88.9¢ | $27.2K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 28,071 | 85.8¢ | $24.8K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| Llalalala0x05e2…6e12 | No | 27,935 | 84.2¢ | $24.7K | Proven+$11.42 per $100 · 125 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 26,204 | 74.8¢ | $23.2K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,952 bets |