Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 24 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 211,987 | 86.1¢ | $188K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 42,808 | 88.3¢ | $37.9K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 30,751 | 88.9¢ | $27.2K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 28,071 | 85.8¢ | $24.8K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| Llalalala0x05e2…6e12 | No | 27,935 | 84.2¢ | $24.7K | Proven+$11.42 per $100 · 125 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 26,204 | 74.8¢ | $23.2K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,956 bets |
| zthunderfury0xc682…17bb | No | 23,005 | 86.9¢ | $20.4K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 497 bets |
| cocos2280x8e5c…a68a | No | 22,831 | 65.6¢ | $20.2K | Proven+$17.59 per $100 · 119 bets |
| 3.3.30x593d…7d5d | Yes | 157,470 | 11.4¢ | $18.1K | New69 settled bets |
| Kevindoto0xcd71…d127 | No | 20,000 | 84.0¢ | $17.7K | Proven+$4.55 per $100 · 728 bets |
| 0x8c66…44f3 | No | 18,000 | 84.0¢ | $15.9K | Proven+$3.23 per $100 · 143 bets |
| Amrosein0x706c…a94b | Yes | 136,115 | 46.2¢ | $15.7K | New31 settled bets |
| mm4ker0x8c57…f939 | No | 17,647 | 85.0¢ | $15.6K | Proven+$4.56 per $100 · 367 bets |
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No | 17,573 | 83.8¢ | $15.6K | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 414 bets |
| agggr0xac92…9d64 | No | 16,536 | 85.4¢ | $14.6K | Proven+$4.25 per $100 · 139 bets |
| nedsta0xf92a…a517 | No | 15,040 | 89.0¢ | $13.3K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 466 bets |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9 | No | 11,321 | 47.3¢ | $10K | Proven+$4.85 per $100 · 2,382 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 86,420 | 21.3¢ | $9.94K | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| skibabiba0x79d9…baec | No | 9,400 | 79.6¢ | $8.32K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 116 bets |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | No | 9,216 | 83.5¢ | $8.16K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,149 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | No | 8,990 | 84.9¢ | $7.96K | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 8,329 | 87.4¢ | $7.37K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| Moond0x9dfe…b3dd | No | 8,245 | 73.5¢ | $7.3K | Proven+$7.42 per $100 · 2,276 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 8,200 | 89.4¢ | $7.26K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| aannggg0xf39f…83bf | No | 7,921 | 84.0¢ | $7.01K | New0 settled bets |
| Tigerofthehood0x9c26…74bc | No | 7,647 | 83.2¢ | $6.77K | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 237 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | No | 7,621 | 69.1¢ | $6.74K | Proven+$5.27 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| yomayo0x3e35…4956 | No | 7,616 | 88.8¢ | $6.74K | Losing−$2.39 per $100 · 106 bets |
| SirHarryOakes0x5685…62e2 | No | 7,502 | 80.0¢ | $6.64K | Proven+$5.58 per $100 · 297 bets |
| Gambler19680x7a61…af24 | No | 6,028 | 30.0¢ | $5.33K | Proven+$24.29 per $100 · 1,950 bets |
| Rolocex0x4e8b…1ea1 | No | 5,676 | 85.3¢ | $5.02K | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 661 bets |
| yomayoto0xf2fc…7a15 | No | 5,500 | 86.2¢ | $4.87K | New76 settled bets |
| laureman0x1359…092e | No | 5,000 | 88.0¢ | $4.42K | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 112 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | No | 5,000 | 76.0¢ | $4.42K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 2,128 bets |
| manekineko0x6606…1338 | No | 5,000 | 85.0¢ | $4.42K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 545 bets |
| Sardinianshepherd0xf42f…a6a7 | No | 4,874 | 71.9¢ | $4.31K | Proven+$5.08 per $100 · 1,737 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 34,572 | 11.0¢ | $3.98K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| Smart-bettor70x7845…417b | No | 4,000 | 86.0¢ | $3.54K | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 525 bets |
| FATMAN0xea83…5c8f | No | 4,000 | 73.0¢ | $3.54K | Positive+$1.58 per $100 · 211 bets |
| tumbra0x52ca…523f | No | 3,896 | 83.9¢ | $3.45K | Proven+$8.86 per $100 · 108 bets |
| Lord.Krulos0x7ed4…7759 | No | 3,800 | 66.0¢ | $3.36K | New68 settled bets |
| BTCGambler2470x31c5…ede4 | No | 3,800 | 63.0¢ | $3.36K | Proven+$9.52 per $100 · 523 bets |
| Robbb0x9cdd…3e97 | No | 3,400 | 75.7¢ | $3.01K | Proven+$5.15 per $100 · 4,527 bets |
| jrosjgoisgsg0x0e71…be4c | No | 3,000 | 77.0¢ | $2.65K | Proven+$9.52 per $100 · 162 bets |
| 0x2d72…cca4 | No | 3,000 | 68.0¢ | $2.65K | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 176 bets |
| TylerTurden0x69ea…15cd | No | 3,000 | 86.0¢ | $2.65K | Proven+$4.25 per $100 · 939 bets |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | No | 3,000 | 81.7¢ | $2.65K | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 3,000 | 65.3¢ | $2.65K | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| yeeTradez0x1181…9e90 | No | 2,858 | 83.0¢ | $2.53K | Losing−$1.63 per $100 · 203 bets |
| GrokEnjoyer0x92e5…efee | No | 2,444 | 51.8¢ | $2.16K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 833 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 18,082 | 20.2¢ | $2.08K | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| 0x45a2…3c01 | Yes | 17,938 | 18.3¢ | $2.06K | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 216 bets |
| dudukos0x77c8…bc8c | No | 2,225 | 31.5¢ | $1.97K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 2,492 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 2,182 | 47.8¢ | $1.93K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 2,156 | 78.6¢ | $1.91K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| Matink0x2944…c5f0 | Yes | 16,013 | 44.7¢ | $1.84K | New16 settled bets |
| ChetterHummin0xc406…07d9 | No | 2,000 | 38.0¢ | $1.77K | — |
| mebad0x04dc…1c45 | Yes | 14,914 | 28.5¢ | $1.72K | New7 settled bets |
| 0xc615…e982 | Yes | 12,048 | 41.0¢ | $1.39K | New22 settled bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | Yes | 11,111 | 20.0¢ | $1.28K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| Tomson4560x7d9f…f01b | Yes | 10,374 | 33.6¢ | $1.19K | New61 settled bets |
| infolitio0xaf28…7f92 | Yes | 10,000 | 26.0¢ | $1.15K | New58 settled bets |
| 0x3ac4…0e8b | Yes | 9,996 | 46.2¢ | $1.15K | New47 settled bets |
| Roflan-ludoman0xfcf2…a469 | Yes | 9,233 | 38.6¢ | $1.06K | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 1,478 bets |
| smartiz19890xf66b…b1d1 | Yes | 8,753 | 27.1¢ | $1.01K | Losing−$6.92 per $100 · 436 bets |
| shjaha0x64de…dcf0 | Yes | 8,031 | 66.6¢ | $924 | New15 settled bets |
| SwissMiss0xdbad…9c95 | Yes | 7,500 | 34.0¢ | $863 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| Logan.0x5109…5e9c | Yes | 7,096 | 22.7¢ | $816 | Proven+$6.53 per $100 · 2,293 bets |
| Pulser0x6a83…4c59 | Yes | 6,422 | 22.5¢ | $739 | Proven+$9.39 per $100 · 1,286 bets |
| 0x00c0…4610 | Yes | 6,178 | 16.2¢ | $711 | New77 settled bets |
| yuhyuhyuhy3523520xbd04…fbb0 | Yes | 6,071 | 25.2¢ | $698 | Proven+$13.58 per $100 · 548 bets |
| dontkn0w0xf0bf…84c7 | Yes | 5,792 | 59.1¢ | $666 | Proven+$36.94 per $100 · 102 bets |
| chong3580x9b54…5e38 | Yes | 5,421 | 38.0¢ | $623 | Losing−$2.73 per $100 · 103 bets |
| WCBT0x66d7…5b7b | Yes | 5,324 | 15.9¢ | $612 | Losing−$9.96 per $100 · 283 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 5,041 | 11.0¢ | $580 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| gateway-0xa20c…451a | Yes | 5,000 | 11.0¢ | $575 | Losing−$1.87 per $100 · 224 bets |
| Mattybryant0x1a74…6b00 | Yes | 4,791 | 62.7¢ | $551 | New2 settled bets |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | Yes | 4,578 | 33.8¢ | $527 | New55 settled bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 4,000 | 16.0¢ | $460 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| Bobo270xe574…22f9 | Yes | 4,000 | 25.0¢ | $460 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 108 bets |
| PancraceRoyer0x29d3…b2ed | Yes | 4,000 | 29.2¢ | $460 | Proven+$11.54 per $100 · 638 bets |
| sqaolkytrpoi0xd6dd…98ee | Yes | 3,951 | 18.0¢ | $454 | Proven+$5.99 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| Cungly0x5ccf…79d7 | Yes | 3,476 | 11.0¢ | $400 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,625 bets |
| StasPanda0x7e5e…7315 | Yes | 3,184 | 15.0¢ | $366 | Losing−$5.33 per $100 · 1,249 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 3,161 | 17.3¢ | $364 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 3,118 | 11.0¢ | $359 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| 0x8fa3…0fd0 | Yes | 3,097 | 33.9¢ | $356 | New0 settled bets |
| goatboss0x56e7…cf24 | Yes | 3,000 | 19.9¢ | $345 | New35 settled bets |
| 0xe172…248a | Yes | 3,000 | 20.0¢ | $345 | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 113 bets |
| JJo0xc408…4675 | Yes | 2,951 | 17.7¢ | $339 | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,924 bets |
| Brookzabo0xca44…450a | Yes | 2,857 | 35.0¢ | $329 | New32 settled bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 2,815 | 14.4¢ | $324 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| jyPoz0x6cf9…cffd | Yes | 2,740 | 70.5¢ | $315 | Proven+$2.78 per $100 · 195 bets |
| 0xa7e9…4f6c | Yes | 2,506 | 24.0¢ | $288 | Losing−$9.26 per $100 · 296 bets |
| 0x02c9…b7cd | Yes | 2,373 | 42.1¢ | $273 | New9 settled bets |
| TaxIsTheft0xa7b5…fa78 | Yes | 2,300 | 62.0¢ | $264 | Losing−$1.33 per $100 · 355 bets |
| SqMoneyHunter0x9ec7…9a5c | Yes | 2,273 | 15.4¢ | $261 | New91 settled bets |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | Yes | 2,232 | 19.0¢ | $257 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| 0x37e0…2789 | Yes | 2,190 | 43.3¢ | $252 | New3 settled bets |
| 0x10b3…40d4 | Yes | 2,000 | 59.0¢ | $230 | Break-even+$0.15 per $100 · 678 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.