Market · 3 of 4 outcomes
Iran leadership change by November 30?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:24 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 20,839 | 93.9¢ | $19.7K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| yomayoto0xf2fc…7a15 | No | 9,050 | 93.7¢ | $8.55K | New |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 5,387 | 89.8¢ | $5.09K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,952 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 4,743 | 91.8¢ | $4.48K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| nope30500x6114…cff0 | No | 3,800 | 94.1¢ | $3.59K | — |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 1,500 | 94.0¢ | $1.42K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 200 shares each side · Show
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