Market · 3 of 4 outcomes
Iran leadership change by November 30?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 20,839 | 93.9¢ | $19.7K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| yomayoto0xf2fc…7a15 | No | 9,050 | 93.7¢ | $8.55K | New |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 5,387 | 89.8¢ | $5.09K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,953 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 4,743 | 91.8¢ | $4.48K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| nope30500x6114…cff0 | No | 3,800 | 94.1¢ | $3.59K | — |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 1,500 | 94.0¢ | $1.42K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | No | 1,050 | 91.0¢ | $992 | Proven+$10.80 per $100 · 1,660 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 17,682 | 6.0¢ | $973 | Proven+$12.11 per $100 · 580 bets |
| SilentHunter0xf5d1…67cc | No | 1,000 | 88.0¢ | $945 | — |
| Robbb0x9cdd…3e97 | No | 812 | 90.0¢ | $768 | Proven+$5.15 per $100 · 4,527 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 734 | 89.8¢ | $693 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| momo5130xcdf8…b8ea | No | 600 | 95.0¢ | $567 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 704 bets |
| Yoyoyoyo230x7b66…3a93 | Yes | 8,700 | 6.0¢ | $478 | — |
| Rolocex0x4e8b…1ea1 | No | 409 | 91.5¢ | $387 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 661 bets |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | No | 400 | 92.0¢ | $378 | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 1,492 bets |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | Yes | 6,041 | 9.0¢ | $332 | New55 settled bets |
| theitaliangoats0x217a…86db | No | 211 | 95.0¢ | $199 | — |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5 | No | 210 | 91.0¢ | $198 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 200 | 88.0¢ | $189 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| Dreamer3bcbcd6c0xd280…82b3 | No | 200 | 94.0¢ | $189 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 7,524 bets |
| JJo0xc408…4675 | Yes | 3,288 | 10.0¢ | $181 | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,924 bets |
| Scrolls0xdaad…5a0d | No | 188 | 94.6¢ | $178 | — |
| 0x25db…28de | Yes | 2,790 | 5.8¢ | $153 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 437 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 133 | 92.2¢ | $126 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| SqMoneyHunter0x9ec7…9a5c | Yes | 2,083 | 6.0¢ | $115 | New91 settled bets |
| Pantheon10x606e…6b3a | No | 110 | 91.0¢ | $104 | — |
| zetbetter0x6512…5291 | No | 106 | 94.0¢ | $101 | Proven+$4.12 per $100 · 680 bets |
| Ogre-Magi0x99f0…649f | No | 105 | 91.0¢ | $99 | — |
| 0x7969…ed43 | Yes | 1,667 | 6.0¢ | $92 | — |
| maxfeng0x6da2…f179 | No | 87 | 95.0¢ | $82 | — |
| Erann7170x5e1f…7828 | Yes | 1,429 | 7.0¢ | $79 | — |
| sqsb0x3abd…2c6a | Yes | 1,029 | 7.0¢ | $57 | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 1,000 | 16.8¢ | $55 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 950 | 6.0¢ | $52 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| PConsensus0x92a3…cf0a | No | 54 | 92.0¢ | $51 | — |
| 0x8b54…167f | No | 54 | 92.0¢ | $51 | — |
| Wolibear0xbec8…d919 | No | 51 | 95.0¢ | $48 | Positive+$4.27 per $100 · 133 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 50 | 92.0¢ | $47 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 48 | 93.1¢ | $45 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 780 | 6.0¢ | $43 | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | Yes | 615 | 15.0¢ | $34 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| Fioms0x1130…12c5 | No | 35 | 94.7¢ | $33 | — |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 565 | 6.4¢ | $31 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| princeofpersian0x8ded…937f | No | 27 | 91.0¢ | $26 | — |
| palka0xa6e6…7ecf | No | 27 | 95.0¢ | $26 | — |
| Sorrymissjackson0x0cbf…4665 | Yes | 433 | 6.0¢ | $24 | Proven+$6.04 per $100 · 190 bets |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | Yes | 347 | 10.1¢ | $19 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| OnlyInGodWeTrust0x0785…ecb4 | Yes | 333 | 9.0¢ | $18 | — |
| struksta0xc4bb…22a9 | No | 18 | 92.0¢ | $17 | — |
| anonymousey0x8fdf…af9e | No | 16 | 91.4¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x8ea9…5345 | Yes | 275 | 12.0¢ | $15 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 239 | 6.1¢ | $13 | Losing−$2.76 per $100 · 122,728 bets |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 14 | 91.9¢ | $13 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| piyasayapici0x69cd…d48d | Yes | 230 | 10.0¢ | $13 | — |
| qcp110x2184…00df | No | 13 | 91.0¢ | $12 | — |
| bLp7qT9M2Rk0xc517…f390 | Yes | 223 | 6.0¢ | $12 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 201 | 10.0¢ | $11 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| adrenvl220xade3…3b44 | Yes | 200 | 6.0¢ | $11 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 200 | 7.0¢ | $11 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| cooola0x6125…9eaf | No | 11 | 90.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x8021…6189 | No | 11 | 92.5¢ | $10 | — |
| oxb2a309A61ca9eD5DB26e9FDDa3a19fF4aE3a79e00xb2a3…79e0 | No | 11 | 92.0¢ | $10 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 10 | 94.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| CloudmarkSeeker0x885f…08a9 | Yes | 129 | 6.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Tanjiro.Kamado0x9d77…cf31 | Yes | 113 | 6.2¢ | $6 | — |
| 46318743680xdfb0…d1dd | Yes | 111 | 9.0¢ | $6 | — |
| StarcrestRunner0xded3…adfd | Yes | 105 | 6.0¢ | $6 | — |
| EliteBetter0x81c9…4a47 | No | 6 | 94.0¢ | $6 | — |
| ScienceDog0xc369…4e87 | Yes | 100 | 8.0¢ | $6 | — |
| itsKey0x95c2…485b | No | 5 | 92.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Eunha0x6d30…b2b3 | No | 5 | 94.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$5.60 per $100 · 228 bets |
| johnnyonmoney0xcdc4…a880 | No | 5 | 95.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$4.68 per $100 · 298 bets |
| 0x0019…5279 | Yes | 90 | 10.3¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xf600…8836 | No | 5 | 94.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x27e0…0987 | Yes | 63 | 15.9¢ | $3 | — |
| kibuseed0xc4f4…e833 | Yes | 63 | 8.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xe97c…ceef | Yes | 45 | 11.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 33 | 8.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,914 bets |
| 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | 29 | 8.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6966…53ed | Yes | 27 | 11.1¢ | $1 | — |
| xiaxiaoqiang20260x46bf…9537 | Yes | 25 | 8.0¢ | $1 | — |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | Yes | 23 | 8.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| 0x82b3…3768 | Yes | 20 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 19 | 7.6¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| 0xb0fe…69a4 | Yes | 18 | 11.1¢ | $1 | — |
| ccyy20260x4282…3455 | Yes | 18 | 6.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.82 per $100 · 1,685 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 18 | 6.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| ostralman0xc3f3…142d | Yes | 17 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc532…f35f | Yes | 17 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 16 | 16.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| geophi0x4bad…62fd | Yes | 15 | 9.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ox787897D6513B855eFe7A033b6c4BfE6da65b8D410x7878…8d41 | Yes | 14 | 11.0¢ | $1 | — |
| umbrella-labs0x860c…418d | Yes | 12 | 9.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0f18…5b28 | Yes | 2 | 8.7¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 200 shares each side · Show
|