October 31

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if Iran starts a general closure of its airspace, not solely from weather, before the dated deadline.§1

Partial closures

Limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures do not qualify; the closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR.§4

Limited exceptions

A closure applying generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace can qualify with limited exceptions, such as pre-approved flights.§5

Other countries

Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran are not sufficient for "Yes".§8

Weather and disasters

Airspace closures occurring solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions do not qualify.§9

Counted

A general closure means cancellation or suspension of aviation generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace ("Tehran FIR").§3

Source

Primary sources are official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.§10

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• December 31 26.0¢
• October 31 6.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.