Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:30 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 22,840 | 91.0¢ | $20.9K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 16,442 | 90.1¢ | $15K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| Raskell0xb37a…f1b1 | No | 16,250 | 91.3¢ | $14.9K | — |
| GOLADS960x894d…04e2 | No | 13,000 | 90.0¢ | $11.9K | New56 settled bets |
| Huludubu0xe738…df65 | No | 6,800 | 89.1¢ | $6.22K | Break-even+$0.43 per $100 · 2,529 bets |
| prophet-spaces0x2dd2…d5d8 | No | 5,200 | 94.0¢ | $4.76K | New82 settled bets |
| JustAProfessor0x57cc…882c | Yes | 55,555 | 10.1¢ | $4.72K | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 4,865 | 87.0¢ | $4.45K | Positive+$4.02 per $100 · 58,748+ bets · updating |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 3,165 | 89.1¢ | $2.9K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | No | 2,890 | 89.0¢ | $2.64K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| 0x91c3…409f | No | 2,004 | 86.4¢ | $1.83K | New0 settled bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 1,130 | 89.1¢ | $1.03K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| ZhouSir10x9876…1e66 | No | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $915 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 213 bets |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | No | 1,000 | 88.0¢ | $915 | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| Trumpchi0xf7b3…eeb2 | No | 900 | 90.1¢ | $824 | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 472 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 800 | 92.5¢ | $732 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 733 | 91.8¢ | $670 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 500 | 85.0¢ | $457 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| RGBluey0x391f…b017 | No | 471 | 89.6¢ | $431 | — |
| compute0xd0d9…d6db | Yes | 5,031 | 7.2¢ | $428 | Positive+$5.67 per $100 · 360 bets |
| SickandTired0x290d…dc40 | No | 421 | 93.3¢ | $385 | — |
| KariSpice0x08ab…3af9 | No | 400 | 84.7¢ | $366 | Proven+$2.59 per $100 · 586 bets |
| smartpreset0x1680…490d | No | 337 | 88.4¢ | $308 | — |
| 0x9b87…3bdc | Yes | 3,324 | 7.4¢ | $283 | — |
| nickthechopper0xe807…4d35 | No | 301 | 90.6¢ | $275 | — |
| stu0x84b0…5bc8 | No | 300 | 89.3¢ | $275 | — |
| yungsoleimani0x386c…8323 | No | 280 | 87.0¢ | $256 | — |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 278 | 88.8¢ | $254 | — |
| Zizibazizi230xfe1f…c113 | Yes | 2,932 | 7.4¢ | $249 | — |
| 0x3e59…b2be | Yes | 2,865 | 17.4¢ | $244 | Losing−$22.45 per $100 · 1,060 bets |
| 0x4135…e462 | Yes | 2,612 | 13.8¢ | $222 | — |
| RayZehavi0x121e…7751 | Yes | 2,283 | 8.8¢ | $194 | New12 settled bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 200 | 90.0¢ | $183 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 2,136 | 12.4¢ | $182 | Proven+$5.20 per $100 · 2,221 bets |
| Joseaa0x633e…9a04 | Yes | 1,726 | 10.5¢ | $147 | — |
| 0xOTd0x79a8…bb66 | No | 150 | 88.4¢ | $137 | — |
| suraxy0xa9ac…c5d1 | Yes | 1,589 | 7.6¢ | $135 | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 2,851 bets |
| vincentfire0x7144…6624 | Yes | 1,539 | 7.5¢ | $131 | New92 settled bets |
| Etay00440x112d…18b9 | Yes | 1,472 | 6.2¢ | $125 | — |
| OffShoreG0xd70e…6f8a | Yes | 1,471 | 12.3¢ | $125 | — |
| Chims0xeec5…b6fe | No | 111 | 89.0¢ | $102 | — |
| Nameuserr0x117b…ef75 | Yes | 1,179 | 8.1¢ | $100 | — |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | No | 100 | 93.0¢ | $92 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 100 | 88.0¢ | $92 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | No | 100 | 93.0¢ | $92 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| charlatta0xb7b8…db31 | No | 100 | 87.0¢ | $92 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 305 bets |
| Elfajad0xa6ea…b02a | Yes | 1,010 | 8.0¢ | $86 | — |
| ysl19360x5d7f…2ae7 | Yes | 1,000 | 7.0¢ | $85 | — |
| fundpol0x3513…b52f | No | 89 | 89.0¢ | $82 | — |
| KGBG0x0647…695c | Yes | 833 | 6.0¢ | $71 | — |
| 0x12c9…5016 | Yes | 821 | 13.4¢ | $70 | — |
| 0xb223…156b | Yes | 800 | 12.0¢ | $68 | — |
| Rainless0x9d5e…3921 | No | 70 | 86.3¢ | $64 | — |
| devjs0x7cbf…f8f9 | Yes | 717 | 14.1¢ | $61 | — |
| Relaccsed0xa6b7…d5f3 | No | 60 | 87.7¢ | $55 | — |
| Avitz330x7a90…2ff9 | Yes | 641 | 11.3¢ | $54 | Proven+$13.01 per $100 · 1,255 bets |
| 0x6b02…e5fc | Yes | 633 | 16.6¢ | $54 | — |
| FridayImInLove0x152f…c7e7 | Yes | 625 | 8.0¢ | $53 | — |
| PConsensus0x92a3…cf0a | No | 57 | 88.0¢ | $52 | — |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 600 | 3.2¢ | $51 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| GoodLuck0x5065…fdbb | Yes | 597 | 8.3¢ | $51 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 51 | 92.2¢ | $47 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,912 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | Yes | 545 | 8.0¢ | $46 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 1,161 bets |
| goodluckluck0x9b64…ff96 | No | 50 | 96.0¢ | $46 | — |
| 0x6d21…d15e | Yes | 505 | 9.9¢ | $43 | — |
| geonb0x7558…970a | No | 46 | 86.5¢ | $43 | — |
| 0x9fe8…2c91 | Yes | 500 | 8.0¢ | $43 | — |
| Xomaj190x1cef…759e | Yes | 494 | 7.1¢ | $42 | — |
| EconProf0x2811…6818 | No | 44 | 90.0¢ | $40 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 464 | 12.6¢ | $39 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| HMRevenueandCustoms0x0d05…6a81 | Yes | 449 | 8.0¢ | $38 | — |
| 0xe1ea…18e7 | Yes | 449 | 13.4¢ | $38 | — |
| KakiBatusik0x371c…c236 | Yes | 432 | 10.6¢ | $37 | — |
| buyrightbake0x57cd…82ac | Yes | 400 | 7.0¢ | $34 | — |
| RogerFed0xe958…66b7 | No | 36 | 88.8¢ | $33 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 36 | 91.6¢ | $33 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Mikelaawrey0x6bc7…4ad4 | Yes | 373 | 5.5¢ | $32 | — |
| 0x5fef…59b9 | Yes | 335 | 9.3¢ | $28 | — |
| DonnaMartinGraduate0x5b9a…896e | Yes | 333 | 9.0¢ | $28 | — |
| yulana0x4d15…e9de | No | 30 | 92.0¢ | $27 | — |
| pilipro30x33e2…3a1b | No | 29 | 85.0¢ | $26 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,022 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 300 | 12.0¢ | $26 | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 3,050 bets |
| 0xc0b9…fdba | Yes | 300 | 15.0¢ | $26 | — |
| rocky420130xf971…0a57 | Yes | 299 | 7.0¢ | $25 | — |
| The-Defect0xac6a…2ed3 | No | 28 | 89.0¢ | $25 | — |
| emelvskaya0x4abb…005c | No | 26 | 87.8¢ | $24 | — |
| 0x87b2…1393 | Yes | 243 | 7.0¢ | $21 | — |
| gotonetry330x66e0…e8f0 | No | 22 | 89.0¢ | $21 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 238 | 9.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$4.43 per $100 · 82,257+ bets · updating |
| 0x8264…0d6d | No | 22 | 92.0¢ | $20 | — |
| Ronenio0xf3ab…dacc | Yes | 231 | 8.6¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x2c2c…bf9b | Yes | 222 | 9.0¢ | $19 | — |
| ttgrgrgrs880x2858…ff7f | No | 20 | 95.0¢ | $18 | — |
| biomen0x6024…bf2c | No | 20 | 91.0¢ | $18 | — |
| greengasper0xfb32…db85 | Yes | 200 | 15.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 0x2db7…8f9b | Yes | 200 | 11.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Amosfa0x2b04…6477 | Yes | 200 | 13.9¢ | $17 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 180 | 11.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| 0x37ea…f395 | Yes | 175 | 4.1¢ | $15 | Losing−$7.96 per $100 · 899 bets |
| Luciwini0x5549…f0fa | Yes | 149 | 9.5¢ | $13 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.