December 31

Decided by

The market resolves Yes if the US government or an authorized representative publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting or suspension of…§2

Timing window

The announcement must be made between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.§2

Partial change

A limited or partial change short of a general end or suspension, like an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo or port, does not qualify.§5

Unofficial statements

Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.§11

Later reversal

Once a qualifying announcement is made, the market resolves Yes even if it is later reversed or the blockade does not end in practice.§18

Counted

A qualifying announcement must communicate a general cessation of blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, even if some restrictions remain.§4

Source

Official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and CENTCOM, or its…§19

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• March 31 65.5¢
• December 31 43.5¢
• November 30 26.0¢
• October 31 13.5¢
• October 15 3.8¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.