October 15

Decided by

The market resolves Yes if the US government or an authorized representative publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of…§2

Later reversal

Once a qualifying announcement is made, the market resolves Yes even if it is later reversed or the blockade does not actually end.§18

Must be declarative

The announcement must state a present termination or suspension, a previously-unannounced prior termination, or a definitive decision to end or suspend the…§6

Qualifying details

It qualifies if it says the US will generally cease blocking traffic for Iranian ships and customers, even if some restrictions like fees remain.§4

Partial changes

An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change, such as an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.§5

Counted

Announcements by the US government or an authorized representative ending, terminating, lifting, or suspending the US naval blockade on Iranian ships and…§2

Source

Official information from the United States government, including the President, Department of Defense, Department of State, and CENTCOM, or their official…§19

Closes

Oct 16, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• March 31 65.5¢
• December 31 44.6¢
• November 30 27.0¢
• October 31 14.5¢
• October 15 4.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.