October 31

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if the US government or an authorized representative publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension…§2

Limited relief

An announcement does not qualify if it is only a limited or partial change, like an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.§5

Conditional statements

Statements describing a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade do not qualify.§17

Later reversal

Once a qualifying announcement is made, the market resolves "Yes" even if it is later reversed or the blockade does not end in practice.§18

Vague references

Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade without clearly communicating it do not qualify.§8

Counted

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present termination or suspension, a previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension, or…§6

Source

Resolution is based on official information from the US government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and CENTCOM,…§19

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• March 31 65.5¢
• December 31 43.4¢
• November 30 26.5¢
• October 31 13.5¢
• October 15 3.7¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.