Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 01:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
18 proven traders are on Yes, 23 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 169,007 | 35.3¢ | $93.6K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| tsybka0xd5cc…dea4 | Yes | 81,549 | 70.2¢ | $36.4K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 943 bets |
| Bertapotamous0x134a…9e42 | Yes | 57,180 | 63.2¢ | $25.5K | Proven+$2.56 per $100 · 4,216 bets |
| Erasmus.0xc658…b784 | Yes | 39,226 | 62.6¢ | $17.5K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 875 bets |
| GayPride0x551e…b0e0 | No | 25,319 | 12.7¢ | $14K | Proven+$6.82 per $100 · 967 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 23,013 | 41.4¢ | $12.7K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| M2sx92kljs420xb4f2…e5fa | No | 21,658 | 18.5¢ | $12K | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 549 bets |
| Hugewinner0xc8ec…e8f1 | No | 21,331 | 52.7¢ | $11.8K | Proven+$31.03 per $100 · 380 bets |
| 0xcf19…6402 | No | 20,814 | 36.9¢ | $11.5K | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 457 bets |
| lazercrazer0xab8f…06d6 | No | 19,883 | 35.5¢ | $11K | New7 settled bets |
| siick0xf9b7…60a4 | No | 16,242 | 37.0¢ | $9K | Proven+$3.60 per $100 · 1,967 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | Yes | 16,856 | 60.0¢ | $7.52K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| 0x6bab…0fe5 | No | 12,912 | 46.5¢ | $7.15K | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 371 bets |
| Ditto3210x30c1…9f91 | No | 12,612 | 39.6¢ | $6.99K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 632 bets |
| yen4u0xf0d5…c665 | No | 12,173 | 4.7¢ | $6.74K | Losing−$5.26 per $100 · 1,977 bets |
| endlesssss0xb4fc…a926 | No | 11,260 | 57.1¢ | $6.24K | Losing−$2.86 per $100 · 1,067 bets |
| Tigerofthehood0x9c26…74bc | Yes | 13,538 | 68.6¢ | $6.04K | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 237 bets |
| headsh0t0x41f3…844e | Yes | 13,071 | 51.9¢ | $5.83K | Proven+$11.64 per $100 · 856 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | Yes | 12,584 | 93.5¢ | $5.61K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 9,846 | 45.1¢ | $5.45K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| MarvelFan940x0978…00e6 | Yes | 12,210 | 72.5¢ | $5.45K | Break-even−$0.34 per $100 · 648 bets |
| tajir0x7bb3…2682 | No | 9,336 | 49.9¢ | $5.17K | Proven+$18.55 per $100 · 186 bets |
| cc3110x2865…2005 | Yes | 10,100 | 73.9¢ | $4.5K | Losing−$4.61 per $100 · 134 bets |
| Dragontree0x2c39…56dc | Yes | 10,060 | 57.8¢ | $4.49K | Proven+$2.69 per $100 · 3,239 bets |
| Hakei.0x97ea…3363 | Yes | 10,000 | 65.0¢ | $4.46K | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| zthunderfury0xc682…17bb | Yes | 9,906 | 49.3¢ | $4.42K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 497 bets |
| Zaratustra0x7818…d185 | Yes | 9,500 | 73.0¢ | $4.24K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 714 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 7,394 | 21.5¢ | $4.1K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 8,013 | 64.3¢ | $3.57K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| dezlstrid0xe16e…da41 | No | 5,984 | 42.5¢ | $3.32K | New25 settled bets |
| ImBruceWayne0x0097…4a1d | No | 5,979 | 42.7¢ | $3.31K | Proven+$53.98 per $100 · 416 bets |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | No | 5,899 | 47.0¢ | $3.27K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,149 bets |
| TheSwedishWolf0x0faf…d0d9 | Yes | 6,718 | 74.3¢ | $3K | Break-even−$0.87 per $100 · 811 bets |
| smallf0xd109…6fa0 | Yes | 6,434 | 81.2¢ | $2.87K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 320 bets |
| coali100x7bc1…8db4 | No | 5,139 | 29.7¢ | $2.85K | Positive+$4.11 per $100 · 400 bets |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | No | 5,087 | 31.2¢ | $2.82K | Proven+$14.85 per $100 · 244 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 6,294 | 53.9¢ | $2.81K | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | Yes | 6,281 | 52.6¢ | $2.8K | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| 0x1698…b3b3 | Yes | 6,218 | 83.6¢ | $2.77K | New1 settled bet |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 4,834 | 51.6¢ | $2.68K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 5,533 | 75.1¢ | $2.47K | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | No | 4,324 | 41.1¢ | $2.4K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| Bet1nthedark0x8b88…5f5e | Yes | 5,200 | 58.0¢ | $2.32K | Losing−$1.48 per $100 · 263 bets |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | Yes | 5,000 | 79.6¢ | $2.23K | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| Niseko0x801d…d8e0 | Yes | 5,000 | 77.3¢ | $2.23K | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 2,045 bets |
| wish-0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | 4,836 | 62.2¢ | $2.16K | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 1,975 bets |
| Smart-bettor70x7845…417b | No | 3,886 | 54.0¢ | $2.15K | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 525 bets |
| ClaudeIntern0x95b3…1df1 | Yes | 4,752 | 61.3¢ | $2.12K | Losing−$13.46 per $100 · 104 bets |
| DonationsReceiver0x8476…5418 | Yes | 4,671 | 48.2¢ | $2.08K | Positive+$1.56 per $100 · 483 bets |
| NatiImBackToU0xc4c9…d2eb | No | 3,651 | 41.7¢ | $2.02K | Proven+$4.61 per $100 · 138 bets |
| 0x4aa7…736e | No | 3,624 | 40.7¢ | $2.01K | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 703 bets |
| 0x9eb4…89b0 | Yes | 4,490 | 65.0¢ | $2K | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 147 bets |
| jtradegbr0x2bc7…e411 | Yes | 4,469 | 62.0¢ | $1.99K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 2,136 bets |
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 4,030 | 50.2¢ | $1.8K | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 3,188 | 47.1¢ | $1.77K | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| bourn220x4a86…2220 | No | 3,154 | 43.1¢ | $1.75K | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 360 bets |
| DonPanic0x50b2…c94a | Yes | 3,910 | 60.9¢ | $1.74K | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 2,020 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | No | 3,064 | 48.3¢ | $1.7K | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| Kenny.Powers0xab7b…f350 | No | 3,000 | 38.0¢ | $1.66K | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 465 bets |
| laureman0x1359…092e | Yes | 3,669 | 49.0¢ | $1.64K | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 112 bets |
| fqy20260x1370…2cfd | Yes | 3,647 | 60.5¢ | $1.63K | Proven+$6.44 per $100 · 102 bets |
| Isekai0xc607…6b29 | Yes | 3,610 | 66.1¢ | $1.61K | Break-even+$0.64 per $100 · 242 bets |
| KariSpice0x08ab…3af9 | Yes | 3,500 | 58.7¢ | $1.56K | Proven+$2.59 per $100 · 586 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | Yes | 3,488 | 75.9¢ | $1.56K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| dbhtdhd0x4a71…ff67 | No | 2,800 | 33.0¢ | $1.55K | New10 settled bets |
| GammaSqueeze12340xb25d…d127 | Yes | 3,430 | 47.8¢ | $1.53K | New79 settled bets |
| 0x0dcc…d87c | Yes | 3,165 | 63.7¢ | $1.41K | Proven+$7.25 per $100 · 184 bets |
| Giannis20260xe5b4…1e3e | No | 2,529 | 46.9¢ | $1.4K | Proven+$13.43 per $100 · 350 bets |
| wisechinaman0xdec2…b015 | Yes | 3,001 | 58.0¢ | $1.34K | Proven+$5.68 per $100 · 1,312 bets |
| skibabiba0x79d9…baec | Yes | 3,000 | 84.6¢ | $1.34K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 116 bets |
| TheRealWarMonger0xe472…e7eb | Yes | 3,000 | 71.8¢ | $1.34K | Break-even−$0.18 per $100 · 699 bets |
| cripes30x8454…331a | Yes | 3,000 | 84.9¢ | $1.34K | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 2,770 bets |
| tgyrjsdrg0xe233…7936 | No | 2,400 | 13.0¢ | $1.33K | New3 settled bets |
| doubleone20xff91…ab3a | Yes | 2,961 | 68.8¢ | $1.32K | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 833 bets |
| trader-05ddbe2e0x05dd…305c | Yes | 2,914 | 67.4¢ | $1.3K | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 19,460 bets |
| Ckasoro0x0d24…dd8d | No | 2,209 | 26.7¢ | $1.22K | New19 settled bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 2,198 | 44.9¢ | $1.22K | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 2,691 | 40.0¢ | $1.2K | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| 0xfa39…977f | Yes | 2,665 | 45.2¢ | $1.19K | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 1,050 bets |
| 0x8e77…c4f3 | Yes | 2,500 | 83.7¢ | $1.11K | Break-even+$0.52 per $100 · 764 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 2,012 | 12.1¢ | $1.11K | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| OkieDokiePeon0x9ddf…2c83 | Yes | 2,491 | 46.1¢ | $1.11K | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 2,178 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 2,000 | 38.3¢ | $1.11K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| ioudas0x49d3…3ed1 | No | 1,901 | 18.6¢ | $1.05K | New2 settled bets |
| facai1688880x67b0…89d3 | No | 1,867 | 28.0¢ | $1.03K | Break-even−$0.06 per $100 · 24,240 bets |
| AmericaFirst10x154c…658e | Yes | 2,299 | 79.4¢ | $1.03K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 6,420 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 2,293 | 54.7¢ | $1.02K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| 0x1fb5…cabd | No | 1,723 | 50.3¢ | $954 | Losing−$5.39 per $100 · 282 bets |
| mamai0xabbe…8f37 | No | 1,638 | 38.8¢ | $908 | Losing−$7.39 per $100 · 667 bets |
| 0xd056…f1be | No | 1,607 | 39.1¢ | $890 | Positive+$2.36 per $100 · 1,760 bets |
| CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | No | 1,585 | 4.8¢ | $878 | Proven+$5.10 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | No | 1,510 | 20.1¢ | $836 | Proven+$10.80 per $100 · 1,660 bets |
| BetZilla0xc33d…1b02 | No | 1,500 | 35.0¢ | $831 | Proven+$7.90 per $100 · 142 bets |
| SleeperHunter0x606f…1083 | No | 1,500 | 37.8¢ | $831 | Positive+$1.81 per $100 · 377 bets |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 1,500 | 43.0¢ | $831 | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| 0x469e…354d | No | 1,371 | 40.1¢ | $759 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 1,346 | 48.0¢ | $746 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | No | 153 | 53.2¢ | $85 | Losing−$7.03 per $100 · 15,917 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.