October 31

Decided by

The market resolves "No" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.§1

Conflicting reports

If sources conflict, the market stays open until consensus or 3 full calendar days from the first credibly reported evidence of the action.§22

Past end date

If that period would extend past the end date, the market remains open to let 3 full calendar days pass.§23

Still conflicting

At the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports are adjudicated on the totality of information available from the resolution sources.§24

Single statements

No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence governs where the totality of information contradicts it.§25

Counted

A qualifying action is a US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran.§3

Source

Official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, and a consensus of credible reporting.§26

Closes

Oct 31, 2026 · 23:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• October 12 97.9¢
• October 15 93.5¢
• October 31 78.5¢
• November 15 59.5¢
• November 30 43.5¢
• December 31 34.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.