Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 04:36 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
13 proven traders are on Yes, 15 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf559…f462 | Yes | 64,652 | 77.4¢ | $52K | Losing−$2.34 per $100 · 747 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | Yes | 50,000 | 78.2¢ | $40.3K | Proven+$4.91 per $100 · 2,290 bets |
| NachiketD0x6f20…c97b | Yes | 25,166 | 79.0¢ | $20.3K | — |
| rerevervadae4r3453214tpermdr43fvd0x09cc…421a | Yes | 23,163 | 49.4¢ | $18.6K | Proven+$34.15 per $100 · 687 bets |
| 0x3fd0…0022 | No | 85,596 | 20.9¢ | $16.7K | Losing−$1.41 per $100 · 224 bets |
| SunXiaochuan60xf1c0…a5a2 | Yes | 20,092 | 81.3¢ | $16.2K | — |
| yuahldj0x27b0…209b | Yes | 19,495 | 46.8¢ | $15.7K | New10 settled bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 15,754 | 68.0¢ | $12.7K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | Yes | 14,864 | 78.3¢ | $12K | New60 settled bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 14,616 | 79.3¢ | $11.8K | Positive+$4.03 per $100 · 1,977 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 14,116 | 68.0¢ | $11.4K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 10,647 | 79.0¢ | $8.57K | Losing−$9.60 per $100 · 56,831+ bets · updating |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 42,000 | 29.0¢ | $8.19K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,241 bets |
| PolMatt0x5e9d…e88b | Yes | 9,235 | 67.4¢ | $7.43K | New65 settled bets |
| LJa7io23MCv954j0x85a8…9281 | Yes | 9,211 | 76.0¢ | $7.41K | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 163 bets |
| Cheremsha0x498d…3e20 | Yes | 8,421 | 76.0¢ | $6.78K | New33 settled bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 8,312 | 77.2¢ | $6.69K | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| cashy0x8f42…b88f | No | 33,705 | 33.5¢ | $6.57K | Proven+$11.86 per $100 · 1,051 bets |
| 0xff1e…5e2d | No | 33,028 | 41.0¢ | $6.44K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 639 bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | No | 30,639 | 41.7¢ | $5.97K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Yes | 7,221 | 56.7¢ | $5.81K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 22,047 bets |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | Yes | 7,000 | 72.8¢ | $5.63K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,149 bets |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | Yes | 6,856 | 54.6¢ | $5.52K | New55 settled bets |
| winwin100860x62e9…fbb9 | Yes | 6,043 | 77.7¢ | $4.86K | New59 settled bets |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | No | 22,591 | 20.7¢ | $4.41K | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 931 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | Yes | 5,000 | 69.6¢ | $4.02K | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 19,315 | 27.0¢ | $3.77K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| ElsaMi0x9653…4228 | No | 18,000 | 22.3¢ | $3.51K | — |
| Obey21620x9531…9099 | Yes | 4,149 | 73.0¢ | $3.34K | — |
| Pulser0x6a83…4c59 | No | 16,623 | 26.1¢ | $3.24K | Proven+$9.39 per $100 · 1,286 bets |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | Yes | 4,000 | 78.0¢ | $3.22K | Positive+$2.44 per $100 · 5,624 bets |
| RdogTest0x9908…062c | Yes | 3,836 | 62.7¢ | $3.09K | — |
| laureman0x1359…092e | Yes | 3,827 | 80.0¢ | $3.08K | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 115 bets |
| 0805260x9ad7…4084 | Yes | 3,736 | 71.5¢ | $3.01K | — |
| 0x7678…22a3 | Yes | 3,500 | 78.0¢ | $2.82K | Proven+$10.57 per $100 · 122 bets |
| Marco-Rubio0xd67b…5780 | Yes | 3,500 | 76.0¢ | $2.82K | Proven+$5.68 per $100 · 1,354 bets |
| cocobobo0x6122…fc91 | Yes | 3,355 | 79.0¢ | $2.7K | New49 settled bets |
| 0x8aaa…51df | No | 13,760 | 39.9¢ | $2.68K | Positive+$32.08 per $100 · 220 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | Yes | 3,206 | 53.1¢ | $2.58K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| 0x0b91…ae77 | Yes | 3,000 | 78.0¢ | $2.42K | Proven+$10.22 per $100 · 659 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 3,000 | 62.1¢ | $2.41K | Proven+$2.33 per $100 · 2,456 bets |
| katbot0x3007…763a | Yes | 2,855 | 67.8¢ | $2.3K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 159 bets |
| Fulgurator0x0130…274c | Yes | 2,500 | 81.8¢ | $2.01K | New87 settled bets |
| dumbmoney1870xa2c8…9ca4 | No | 10,000 | 34.8¢ | $1.95K | — |
| WEN-ALPHA0x5464…af99 | No | 9,719 | 23.7¢ | $1.9K | Proven+$15.04 per $100 · 272 bets |
| nope30500x6114…cff0 | Yes | 2,250 | 78.3¢ | $1.81K | Losing−$1.97 per $100 · 100 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 2,247 | 77.4¢ | $1.81K | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| 0xd05a…f204 | No | 9,089 | 22.1¢ | $1.77K | — |
| GOLADS960x894d…04e2 | No | 8,800 | 30.0¢ | $1.72K | New56 settled bets |
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 2,128 | 59.3¢ | $1.71K | Break-even−$0.98 per $100 · 399 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 1,952 | 77.6¢ | $1.57K | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,975 bets |
| ajaaja0x93d4…7345 | Yes | 1,750 | 60.0¢ | $1.41K | Break-even−$0.95 per $100 · 238 bets |
| Everestpredictions0xceca…3f67 | Yes | 1,648 | 70.1¢ | $1.33K | Break-even−$0.24 per $100 · 817 bets |
| 0xd640…480c | Yes | 1,641 | 77.4¢ | $1.32K | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| m1234320x28e3…92ce | Yes | 1,633 | 56.0¢ | $1.31K | New59 settled bets |
| nmnr0xcb86…feda | Yes | 1,630 | 60.5¢ | $1.31K | — |
| 0xdamocles0xf5c4…0926 | Yes | 1,593 | 71.0¢ | $1.28K | Proven+$4.33 per $100 · 283 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 6,208 | 30.0¢ | $1.21K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,062 bets |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | Yes | 1,500 | 59.6¢ | $1.21K | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 1,500 | 78.7¢ | $1.21K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| SleeperHunter0x606f…1083 | Yes | 1,500 | 64.0¢ | $1.21K | Positive+$1.81 per $100 · 377 bets |
| Mst-br0xdda5…c82a | Yes | 1,500 | 78.1¢ | $1.21K | — |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | Yes | 1,500 | 78.0¢ | $1.21K | Proven+$10.79 per $100 · 1,662 bets |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | Yes | 1,498 | 80.3¢ | $1.21K | Proven+$3.19 per $100 · 465 bets |
| abdoohl0x8e4f…4594 | No | 6,175 | 23.1¢ | $1.2K | — |
| Goovise0x80f4…0692 | Yes | 1,266 | 79.0¢ | $1.02K | — |
| whichtopick0x6098…c419 | No | 5,000 | 21.2¢ | $975 | Losing−$11.44 per $100 · 108 bets |
| 0x83e9…9f08 | No | 5,000 | 41.0¢ | $975 | New58 settled bets |
| Lolakis0x401e…6fc9 | No | 4,772 | 20.8¢ | $931 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 2,259 bets |
| 0x0bb9…9725 | No | 4,444 | 22.0¢ | $867 | Proven+$23.85 per $100 · 171 bets |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | No | 4,000 | 22.0¢ | $780 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 1,254 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 3,998 | 40.1¢ | $780 | Proven+$3.47 per $100 · 1,718 bets |
| Mr-Krabs0x8597…daee | No | 3,559 | 23.7¢ | $694 | Positive+$1.83 per $100 · 840 bets |
| compute0xd0d9…d6db | No | 3,522 | 22.7¢ | $687 | Positive+$5.67 per $100 · 360 bets |
| siick0xf9b7…60a4 | No | 3,500 | 25.0¢ | $683 | Proven+$3.60 per $100 · 1,967 bets |
| IceWindL0xdae6…e440 | No | 3,111 | 26.2¢ | $607 | Proven+$7.53 per $100 · 261 bets |
| iNeedMoreDollars0xeda8…6ca8 | No | 2,638 | 24.0¢ | $514 | — |
| JasonPunos0x47ae…ee94 | No | 2,580 | 42.3¢ | $503 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 1,082 bets |
| TheDao0x26f8…a969 | No | 2,410 | 24.3¢ | $470 | New71 settled bets |
| JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1 | No | 2,266 | 17.4¢ | $442 | Proven+$21.46 per $100 · 12,441 bets |
| 0x64c28c0EEf3514b40x0484…e0ee | No | 2,222 | 21.0¢ | $433 | Positive+$6.74 per $100 · 389 bets |
| dust8880x7521…01fa | No | 2,100 | 23.8¢ | $409 | New11 settled bets |
| bearbees20x12b8…479c | No | 2,000 | 38.0¢ | $390 | Positive+$1.30 per $100 · 259 bets |
| gateway-0xa20c…451a | No | 2,000 | 29.0¢ | $390 | Losing−$1.87 per $100 · 224 bets |
| Saltyballs0xd46b…5dab | No | 1,975 | 32.0¢ | $385 | Proven+$7.59 per $100 · 920 bets |
| rewardbots0x876b…1703 | No | 1,551 | 41.0¢ | $302 | Proven+$11.15 per $100 · 504 bets |
| Mickedonbas0x2aab…51b3 | No | 1,458 | 24.0¢ | $284 | New0 settled bets |
| ns1390xbd87…6bf9 | No | 1,429 | 21.0¢ | $279 | — |
| Justin2170x64c3…d720 | No | 1,304 | 23.0¢ | $254 | Proven+$13.81 per $100 · 171 bets |
| uraw0x8a4c…2c4c | No | 1,250 | 32.0¢ | $244 | Positive+$9.98 per $100 · 150 bets |
| thesandman0xf87b…180a | No | 1,211 | 19.4¢ | $236 | — |
| 0xf27d…e6d3 | No | 1,200 | 40.3¢ | $234 | Positive+$7.37 per $100 · 1,338 bets |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | No | 1,190 | 26.9¢ | $232 | — |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | No | 1,110 | 29.0¢ | $216 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| delta-fox0xdf88…70f1 | No | 1,004 | 34.5¢ | $196 | — |
| Jep-G0x993c…6787 | No | 1,000 | 39.7¢ | $195 | Proven+$2.34 per $100 · 2,215 bets |
| StudyPrediction0x33bc…37dc | No | 1,000 | 19.0¢ | $195 | Break-even+$0.57 per $100 · 23,198 bets |
| anotherpatrick0xc984…37ca | No | 1,000 | 19.0¢ | $195 | — |
| Dropletz0x9226…ea1a | No | 825 | 24.2¢ | $161 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.