October 12

Decided by

The market resolves "No" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.§1

Conflicting reports

If sources conflict on occurrence, attribution, or timing, the market stays open until consensus or 3 full calendar days from first credible evidence.§22

Past end date

If that period would extend past the end date, the market remains open to let 3 full calendar days pass.§23

Reports still conflict

At the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports are adjudicated on the totality of information from the resolution sources then available.§24

Single statements

No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence governs where the totality of information contradicts it.§25

Counted

A qualifying military action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.§3

Source

Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.§26

Closes

Oct 13, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• October 12 96.8¢
• October 15 92.5¢
• October 31 78.5¢
• November 15 59.5¢
• November 30 42.5¢
• December 31 33.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.