October 15

Decided by

The market resolves "No" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date; otherwise it resolves "Yes".§1

Excluded weapons list

Excluded: howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS), short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes.§13

Intercepted munitions

Debris, fragments, or wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran are not a military action regardless of damage.§17

Conflicting reports

If reports conflict, the market stays open until consensus or 3 full calendar days from the first credibly reported evidence, then totality decides.§22

Counted

A qualifying action is a US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran; threats or unexecuted force do not count.§3

Source

Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.§26

Closes

Oct 16, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• October 12 96.8¢
• October 15 92.5¢
• October 31 78.5¢
• November 15 59.5¢
• November 30 42.5¢
• December 31 33.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.