As written on Polymarket for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?”.
§1This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
§2Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
§3A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.
§4An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
§5A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
§6The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
§7Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
§8Surface-to-air missile strikes;
§9Small-arms fire;
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:55 UTC. Not financial advice.
§10Ground incursions;
§11Cyber operations;
§12Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
§13Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
§14Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
§15Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
§16Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.
§17Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
§18“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters.
§19Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.
§20Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
§21The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
§22Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
§23If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.
§24At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
§25No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
§26The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
The market resolves "No" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date; otherwise it resolves "Yes".§1
Excluded weapons list
Excluded: howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS), short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes.§13
Intercepted munitions
Debris, fragments, or wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran are not a military action regardless of damage.§17
Conflicting reports
If reports conflict, the market stays open until consensus or 3 full calendar days from the first credibly reported evidence, then totality decides.§22
Counted
A qualifying action is a US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran; threats or unexecuted force do not count.§3
Source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.§26
Closes
Oct 16, 2026 · 03:59 UTC
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.