Market · 2 of 6 outcomes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:09 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
12 proven traders are on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 29,170 | 88.9¢ | $27K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| 0x3fd0…0022 | Yes | 27,119 | 88.0¢ | $25.1K | Losing |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | Yes | 17,807 | 92.0¢ | $16.5K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 1,153 bets |
| Astera0xb5b8…f0cb | Yes | 17,449 | 91.1¢ | $16.1K | — |
| LJa7io23MCv954j0x85a8…9281 | Yes | 14,130 | 92.0¢ | $13.1K | — |
| Dragontree0x2c39…56dc | Yes | 11,820 | 90.0¢ | $10.9K | Proven+$2.69 per $100 · 3,239 bets |
| SquirrelTheMerchant0xfb59…83f9 | Yes | 7,201 | 91.9¢ | $6.66K | Proven+$19.44 per $100 · 263 bets |
| camscot0xb9ee…8c9c | Yes | 6,250 | 90.9¢ | $5.78K | — |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | Yes | 6,000 | 88.5¢ | $5.55K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| truthteller0x30e4…5102 | Yes | 5,000 | 91.0¢ | $4.63K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 3,480 bets |
| 0xf2b0…b26b | Yes | 4,900 | 86.9¢ | $4.53K | — |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 4,844 | 93.7¢ | $4.48K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| Obey21620x9531…9099 | Yes | 4,577 | 87.0¢ | $4.23K | — |
| PolMatt0x5e9d…e88b | Yes | 3,945 | 87.6¢ | $3.65K | — |
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 3,942 | 81.2¢ | $3.65K | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | Yes | 3,693 | 91.6¢ | $3.42K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| 0xffd3…7c75 | Yes | 3,207 | 82.9¢ | $2.97K | Proven+$18.43 per $100 · 112 bets |
| laureman0x1359…092e | Yes | 3,000 | 93.0¢ | $2.78K | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 112 bets |
| Hashbrown0xa52b…9480 | Yes | 2,638 | 82.0¢ | $2.44K | Positive+$1.30 per $100 · 1,115 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 30,000 | 9.6¢ | $2.25K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| Noahrichards980xe57a…e196 | Yes | 2,407 | 90.0¢ | $2.23K | New35 settled bets |
| ToTheWindow0xdf90…41f0 | Yes | 2,400 | 89.9¢ | $2.22K | — |
| geowatch0x5645…5d21 | Yes | 2,222 | 90.0¢ | $2.06K | — |
| nope30500x6114…cff0 | Yes | 2,000 | 82.1¢ | $1.85K | — |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | Yes | 2,000 | 80.2¢ | $1.85K | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| 0x41e8…b994 | Yes | 1,960 | 78.7¢ | $1.81K | Proven+$8.84 per $100 · 149 bets |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | No | 23,279 | 10.5¢ | $1.75K | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 769 bets |
| ColinHuang0xd122…b391 | Yes | 1,830 | 90.0¢ | $1.69K | — |
| SunXiaochuan60xf1c0…a5a2 | Yes | 1,434 | 80.2¢ | $1.33K | — |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 1,327 | 89.0¢ | $1.23K | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | No | 15,999 | 6.0¢ | $1.2K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | No | 15,000 | 7.1¢ | $1.12K | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 1,200 | 91.0¢ | $1.11K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| NatiImBackToU0xc4c9…d2eb | Yes | 1,134 | 93.0¢ | $1.05K | Proven+$4.61 per $100 · 138 bets |
| obakobakk0xb4d2…fa62 | Yes | 1,100 | 91.0¢ | $1.02K | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 278 bets |
| mathrex0x50b0…1640 | Yes | 1,099 | 91.0¢ | $1.02K | New64 settled bets |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | Yes | 1,000 | 91.0¢ | $925 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| Fulgurator0x0130…274c | Yes | 999 | 93.0¢ | $924 | New87 settled bets |
| Timolol450xca12…e855 | Yes | 870 | 92.0¢ | $804 | — |
| ElsaMi0x9653…4228 | No | 10,600 | 7.7¢ | $795 | — |
| suraxy0xa9ac…c5d1 | No | 10,556 | 8.5¢ | $792 | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 2,851 bets |
| 0xc627…cf54 | No | 10,501 | 17.0¢ | $788 | — |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 9,610 | 9.0¢ | $721 | Positive+$3.55 per $100 · 1,959 bets |
| SpicyMoon0x9144…a412 | Yes | 769 | 81.8¢ | $711 | — |
| ohcrikey0x8e38…9042 | No | 8,340 | 12.0¢ | $626 | — |
| ulysse2220x25d9…ff14 | Yes | 600 | 79.5¢ | $555 | New42 settled bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | Yes | 600 | 80.7¢ | $555 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 7,166 | 13.3¢ | $537 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | Yes | 575 | 79.0¢ | $532 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| 0x16ad…4639 | Yes | 538 | 93.0¢ | $497 | — |
| 0x8b95…19ba | Yes | 538 | 93.0¢ | $497 | — |
| Allen590xfd80…393a | Yes | 513 | 78.0¢ | $474 | — |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 497 | 80.5¢ | $460 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | Yes | 496 | 80.6¢ | $459 | — |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | No | 6,000 | 7.0¢ | $450 | Positive+$2.88 per $100 · 1,252 bets |
| YallGonLearn0xede9…b667 | Yes | 430 | 93.0¢ | $398 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 422 | 89.0¢ | $390 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| AlphaBetaGamma23570x5652…00c9 | No | 5,000 | 10.0¢ | $375 | Proven+$5.60 per $100 · 868 bets |
| 5tghfh67fghfsdt4356g0x83c5…e193 | Yes | 400 | 93.0¢ | $370 | Proven+$6.67 per $100 · 2,764 bets |
| pipelinerat0xfe6b…f616 | Yes | 400 | 78.7¢ | $370 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 400 | 89.8¢ | $370 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| Cungly0x5ccf…79d7 | No | 4,522 | 10.7¢ | $339 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,625 bets |
| AYTLS0x6c92…9627 | No | 4,250 | 8.5¢ | $319 | — |
| WEN-ALPHA0x5464…af99 | No | 3,289 | 4.6¢ | $247 | — |
| Vecellio0xc173…20f5 | No | 2,995 | 12.9¢ | $225 | — |
| 0x83e9…9f08 | No | 2,800 | 18.0¢ | $210 | New58 settled bets |
| Mr-Krabs0x8597…daee | No | 2,600 | 11.0¢ | $195 | Positive+$1.83 per $100 · 838 bets |
| WhatTheHelly0xe471…c87c | No | 2,420 | 21.0¢ | $181 | Positive+$8.80 per $100 · 1,202 bets |
| dumbmoney1870xa2c8…9ca4 | No | 2,245 | 25.6¢ | $168 | — |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | No | 2,226 | 9.2¢ | $167 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| Mickedonbas0x2aab…51b3 | No | 2,222 | 9.0¢ | $167 | — |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 2,222 | 8.0¢ | $167 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 10,253 bets |
| BetZilla0xc33d…1b02 | No | 2,200 | 10.0¢ | $165 | Proven+$7.90 per $100 · 142 bets |
| sinnerj0xb6ed…1ae4 | No | 2,156 | 7.0¢ | $162 | — |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | No | 2,000 | 10.2¢ | $150 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| 0x0626…513a | No | 1,950 | 8.0¢ | $146 | — |
| Dandus19750xef08…fe59 | No | 1,880 | 10.6¢ | $141 | — |
| ManAreBrave0x58c6…d759 | No | 1,548 | 20.0¢ | $116 | — |
| SDODNDPD0x3458…b5a7 | No | 1,250 | 8.0¢ | $94 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 3,300 bets |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | No | 1,055 | 9.0¢ | $79 | Proven+$3.15 per $100 · 460 bets |
| Dellabc10x97cb…c910 | No | 1,012 | 8.9¢ | $76 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 1,000 | 5.0¢ | $75 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| endlesssss0xb4fc…a926 | No | 1,000 | 10.0¢ | $75 | Losing−$2.86 per $100 · 1,067 bets |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | No | 1,000 | 7.0¢ | $75 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 914 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | No | 1,000 | 7.0¢ | $75 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| Humble-Monk0x2200…0f2d | No | 900 | 9.0¢ | $68 | Proven+$5.72 per $100 · 965 bets |
| uraw0x8a4c…2c4c | No | 817 | 12.2¢ | $61 | Positive+$9.98 per $100 · 150 bets |
| FrankA0x11a1…7afe | No | 800 | 15.7¢ | $60 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 696 | 8.6¢ | $52 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 809 bets |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | No | 668 | 13.0¢ | $50 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| Markcoin100x85a2…203c | No | 625 | 8.0¢ | $47 | — |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | No | 606 | 5.3¢ | $45 | — |
| leeroy20060xa497…f44a | No | 600 | 10.0¢ | $45 | — |
| 0x8b5a…b95d | No | 583 | 12.0¢ | $44 | Losing−$24.53 per $100 · 517 bets |
| 0x397c…6bb2 | No | 550 | 9.1¢ | $41 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | No | 510 | 7.0¢ | $38 | Positive+$12.12 per $100 · 3,923 bets |
| 0xnito0x6d68…11bc | No | 500 | 8.0¢ | $38 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 2.23K shares each side · Show
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