November 15

Decided by

The market resolves "No" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.§1

Conflicting reports

If sources conflict on the action, the market stays open until consensus or 3 full calendar days from first credibly reported evidence.§22

Past end date

If that period would extend past the end date, the market stays open to let 3 full calendar days pass.§23

Still conflicting

After the third calendar day, conflicting reports are adjudicated on the totality of information from the resolution sources then.§24

Single denial

No single statement, denial, or evidence presentation governs where the totality of information contradicts it.§25

Counted

A qualifying action is a US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran.§3

Source

Official information from the US and Iran governments and militaries, and a consensus of credible reporting.§26

Closes

Nov 16, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• October 12 96.8¢
• October 15 92.5¢
• October 31 78.5¢
• November 15 59.5¢
• November 30 42.5¢
• December 31 33.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.