Market · 4 of 6 outcomes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:02 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 14,541 | 58.8¢ | $8.65K | Positive+$3.55 per $100 · 1,960 bets |
| Dragontree0x2c39…56dc | Yes | 3,880 | 57.7¢ | $2.31K | Proven+$2.69 per $100 · 3,239 bets |
| Myway0x52f9…e1c7 | Yes | 3,727 | 53.7¢ | $2.22K | — |
| franklin100x59fd…c2e2 | No | 4,800 | 42.0¢ | $1.94K | New69 settled bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 4,000 | 44.4¢ | $1.62K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| 0x6ddf…6581 | No | 2,960 | 39.5¢ | $1.2K | — |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 2,924 | 43.7¢ | $1.18K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 2,000 | 42.5¢ | $810 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 65,033 bets |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | Yes | 1,253 | 59.9¢ | $745 | Proven+$3.15 per $100 · 460 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 1,029 | 55.0¢ | $612 | Proven+$12.11 per $100 · 580 bets |
| SDODNDPD0x3458…b5a7 | No | 1,167 | 42.8¢ | $473 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 3,300 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 763 | 59.0¢ | $454 | Losing−$1.19 per $100 · 86,515+ bets · updating |
| tatimatidaoc0x85fa…d2c6 | No | 1,000 | 43.0¢ | $405 | — |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 1,000 | 43.9¢ | $405 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| Copyright-10x235e…5673 | No | 947 | 44.0¢ | $383 | — |
| Chims0xeec5…b6fe | Yes | 620 | 52.3¢ | $369 | — |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | No | 745 | 41.9¢ | $302 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 6,486 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 492 | 61.0¢ | $293 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| Mikelaawrey0x6bc7…4ad4 | No | 692 | 45.5¢ | $280 | — |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | No | 667 | 41.3¢ | $270 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 446 | 49.0¢ | $265 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 600 | 43.1¢ | $243 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| 0xe6c4…4c8b | No | 578 | 46.9¢ | $234 | Proven+$2.42 per $100 · 203 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 318 | 48.0¢ | $189 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| uraw0x8a4c…2c4c | No | 417 | 48.0¢ | $169 | Positive+$9.98 per $100 · 150 bets |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | No | 400 | 41.0¢ | $162 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| defoncetout0x526d…fb92 | No | 366 | 41.0¢ | $148 | — |
| 0nk0nf0rm0d0xb93e…195e | No | 345 | 41.0¢ | $140 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | Yes | 200 | 56.0¢ | $119 | — |
| AnonSequitur0xd7ee…0e97 | No | 285 | 55.5¢ | $115 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 266 | 45.8¢ | $108 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0x0314…2f6d | No | 264 | 42.3¢ | $107 | — |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | Yes | 179 | 56.0¢ | $106 | — |
| TermsandCods0xfe06…abb5 | No | 227 | 44.0¢ | $92 | — |
| PaulVan0xa819…0ee7 | Yes | 151 | 57.0¢ | $90 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 209 | 43.5¢ | $85 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| OffShoreG0xd70e…6f8a | No | 201 | 49.7¢ | $81 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 201 | 43.0¢ | $81 | — |
| ferraracesare0x5aa0…c2d1 | No | 200 | 44.0¢ | $81 | — |
| SquirrelTheMerchant0xfb59…83f9 | No | 200 | 41.0¢ | $81 | Proven+$19.44 per $100 · 263 bets |
| Rainless0x9d5e…3921 | Yes | 112 | 53.8¢ | $66 | — |
| vinfort0x7cc0…df00 | Yes | 111 | 57.0¢ | $66 | — |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | Yes | 100 | 53.0¢ | $60 | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 1,492 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 100 | 53.0¢ | $60 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 100 | 53.0¢ | $59 | — |
| aenews20x44c1…ebc1 | No | 146 | 51.0¢ | $59 | Positive+$1.65 per $100 · 4,115 bets |
| noib0x187f…5fee | Yes | 96 | 55.2¢ | $57 | Positive+$5.43 per $100 · 215 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 138 | 53.0¢ | $56 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| c4mel0xb2ca…dc6d | No | 134 | 44.7¢ | $54 | — |
| Volituk0x2f88…0111 | Yes | 84 | 60.0¢ | $50 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 120 | 42.0¢ | $49 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| greasfsg0x3e1d…1984 | No | 115 | 52.0¢ | $47 | — |
| 2020xb0x263a…f5aa | No | 105 | 47.7¢ | $42 | — |
| 0x23ac…44a6 | Yes | 70 | 57.0¢ | $42 | — |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | No | 100 | 44.0¢ | $41 | — |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | Yes | 65 | 60.0¢ | $39 | — |
| ForeverRed0xa577…b06a | Yes | 65 | 61.5¢ | $39 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 95 | 42.0¢ | $38 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 809 bets |
| beansontoasts0xc7b6…3158 | Yes | 63 | 53.0¢ | $38 | — |
| GekkeHenkie230x5c3a…d4f4 | Yes | 60 | 60.8¢ | $36 | — |
| DidYKH0xd16b…36c0 | Yes | 60 | 58.6¢ | $36 | — |
| proseandcons0x5830…757f | No | 80 | 44.0¢ | $32 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 53 | 57.0¢ | $31 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 49 | 57.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| The-Defect0xac6a…2ed3 | Yes | 47 | 54.0¢ | $28 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 69 | 42.4¢ | $28 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,912 bets |
| 0x07bf…2ec9 | No | 68 | 48.9¢ | $28 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 45 | 54.7¢ | $27 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| sheriusoul0x1ca5…05a8 | Yes | 44 | 57.0¢ | $26 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 59 | 41.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$4.43 per $100 · 82,257+ bets · updating |
| adasol0x5297…7b99 | Yes | 40 | 54.2¢ | $24 | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 486 bets |
| koninginhetuniverse0xa579…aad0 | No | 56 | 53.5¢ | $23 | Break-even+$0.28 per $100 · 2,326 bets |
| Notard0x91c9…d319 | Yes | 35 | 57.0¢ | $21 | — |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | Yes | 35 | 56.1¢ | $21 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| DawnOfYemen0xc34a…6007 | No | 50 | 42.0¢ | $20 | Proven+$3.27 per $100 · 1,824 bets |
| ninasimon0x655e…e0cc | No | 46 | 45.7¢ | $19 | — |
| Shivangroup0x17da…f3bb | Yes | 30 | 49.3¢ | $18 | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 30 | 56.0¢ | $18 | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| StevAplaty0xc935…74cf | Yes | 30 | 61.0¢ | $18 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | No | 40 | 41.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Ning00490x110e…5db1 | Yes | 26 | 58.0¢ | $15 | — |
| gaut63750x5874…05f7 | No | 35 | 39.7¢ | $14 | — |
| liranos0x6924…fe31 | Yes | 24 | 59.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Miguel2621440x2df5…51ac | No | 33 | 44.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Ima-shcha0x4c2e…ca9a | Yes | 20 | 49.0¢ | $12 | — |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | Yes | 20 | 59.0¢ | $12 | — |
| NickLWorth0x8e82…5fad | Yes | 20 | 57.0¢ | $12 | — |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | Yes | 20 | 56.0¢ | $12 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| bssource0x5653…e1ad | No | 27 | 46.0¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xcbc4…6070 | Yes | 18 | 55.0¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x17d5…482e | No | 26 | 39.2¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x48d0…92a1 | Yes | 17 | 61.4¢ | $10 | — |
| vlkv.junior0xbdc2…af19 | No | 24 | 41.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Walshnaldo0xe12c…6587 | No | 24 | 41.0¢ | $10 | — |
| luisliu0x4cff…7cdb | Yes | 14 | 50.9¢ | $8 | — |
| SumDumFuk0x6e7b…bcbc | Yes | 14 | 60.0¢ | $8 | — |
| bender220x9053…8d97 | Yes | 11 | 46.0¢ | $6 | — |
| kgf06180xce4a…f704 | Yes | 10 | 48.1¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xa037…d3c9 | Yes | 10 | 59.0¢ | $6 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.