Market · 1 of 6 outcomes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:09 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 12 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sdhyky0x264c…baca | Yes | 20,000 | 96.3¢ | $19.4K | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 1,475 bets |
| scout0x2d99…4ca3 | Yes | 20,000 | 93.4¢ | $19.4K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 1,012 bets |
| Astera0xb5b8…f0cb | Yes | 18,943 | 95.9¢ | $18.3K | — |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | Yes | 15,173 | 90.6¢ | $14.7K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| BunCaCham0x996a…e3cc | Yes | 15,000 | 94.9¢ | $14.5K | Break-even−$0.32 per $100 · 3,721 bets |
| camscot0xb9ee…8c9c | Yes | 13,881 | 94.6¢ | $13.4K | — |
| wubddh0x94eb…37e6 | Yes | 10,004 | 97.3¢ | $9.69K | Break-even+$0.00 per $100 · 1,047 bets |
| Lolakis0x401e…6fc9 | Yes | 9,830 | 96.0¢ | $9.52K | Positive+$1.42 per $100 · 2,251 bets |
| Neon-Gargoyle0x1424…2c7f | Yes | 7,561 | 95.6¢ | $7.32K | — |
| laureman0x1359…092e | Yes | 7,474 | 97.2¢ | $7.24K | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 112 bets |
| Luna20020xeec7…ab6f | Yes | 7,037 | 96.1¢ | $6.81K | — |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | Yes | 6,666 | 94.2¢ | $6.46K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 6,308 | 95.9¢ | $6.11K | Positive+$3.55 per $100 · 1,959 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | Yes | 5,687 | 92.9¢ | $5.51K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| imumoccupancy0x7c4d…bb01 | Yes | 5,618 | 96.7¢ | $5.44K | — |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 5,045 | 93.2¢ | $4.89K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| moonlight20200x407d…1bae | Yes | 5,000 | 90.2¢ | $4.84K | Proven+$3.85 per $100 · 319 bets |
| 0xb9ef…0b8b | Yes | 3,899 | 95.9¢ | $3.78K | New3 settled bets |
| 0xd157…e9d4 | Yes | 3,800 | 95.6¢ | $3.68K | — |
| 0xf2b0…b26b | Yes | 3,800 | 93.8¢ | $3.68K | — |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | Yes | 3,604 | 95.7¢ | $3.49K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 914 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | Yes | 3,598 | 94.4¢ | $3.48K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 3,358 | 94.4¢ | $3.25K | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 30,060+ bets · updating |
| Dragontree0x2c39…56dc | Yes | 3,214 | 94.1¢ | $3.11K | Proven+$2.69 per $100 · 3,239 bets |
| mathrex0x50b0…1640 | Yes | 3,181 | 94.3¢ | $3.08K | New64 settled bets |
| pro.crypto0x88be…3192 | Yes | 3,100 | 96.0¢ | $3K | — |
| tianjiyuyunzhilu0xc757…ccfc | Yes | 2,435 | 94.1¢ | $2.36K | — |
| widheji0x1686…3cd3 | Yes | 2,213 | 94.9¢ | $2.14K | — |
| gamblito0x6452…30a1 | Yes | 2,069 | 96.7¢ | $2K | Losing−$6.12 per $100 · 391 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | Yes | 2,044 | 96.6¢ | $1.98K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,951 bets |
| d7fd4ggg0x3f26…4141 | Yes | 2,042 | 94.8¢ | $1.98K | — |
| Josecito6660x116b…cf8e | Yes | 2,007 | 94.2¢ | $1.94K | — |
| tms20160x6779…2ff6 | Yes | 1,980 | 96.6¢ | $1.92K | Losing−$9.42 per $100 · 713 bets |
| TylerTurden0x69ea…15cd | Yes | 1,901 | 94.3¢ | $1.84K | Proven+$4.25 per $100 · 939 bets |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | Yes | 1,871 | 95.6¢ | $1.81K | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | Yes | 1,839 | 94.6¢ | $1.78K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 1,800 | 94.0¢ | $1.74K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 1,780 | 96.5¢ | $1.72K | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,689 | 92.4¢ | $1.64K | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | No | 47,805 | 4.2¢ | $1.51K | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 769 bets |
| chadmure0xd53b…825a | Yes | 1,162 | 93.6¢ | $1.13K | — |
| Ckyun0x263e…2607 | Yes | 1,100 | 95.6¢ | $1.07K | — |
| pagalworld0xad7a…f00c | Yes | 1,100 | 95.4¢ | $1.07K | — |
| Bukaj08890x5be7…1b1d | Yes | 1,048 | 95.4¢ | $1.02K | Positive+$1.97 per $100 · 244 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 1,040 | 92.6¢ | $1.01K | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 1,034 | 95.3¢ | $1K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 31,657 | 4.2¢ | $997 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $969 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| whyfly0x5bdb…cff1 | Yes | 1,000 | 96.6¢ | $969 | — |
| 0xc6e1…3b95 | Yes | 1,000 | 96.4¢ | $969 | Losing−$1.60 per $100 · 431 bets |
| Timolol450xca12…e855 | Yes | 1,000 | 90.0¢ | $969 | — |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 1,000 | 93.6¢ | $969 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| 0xc627…cf54 | No | 27,482 | 5.8¢ | $866 | — |
| HMRevenueandCustoms0x0d05…6a81 | No | 15,461 | 5.0¢ | $487 | — |
| Hatuli0x30ec…03a1 | No | 13,537 | 3.8¢ | $426 | — |
| Pulser0x6a83…4c59 | No | 13,106 | 5.0¢ | $413 | Proven+$9.39 per $100 · 1,286 bets |
| cashy0x8f42…b88f | No | 12,195 | 5.4¢ | $384 | Proven+$11.86 per $100 · 1,051 bets |
| Draffa0xaacb…90cb | No | 11,612 | 3.9¢ | $366 | — |
| 0x8aaa…51df | No | 8,333 | 9.4¢ | $262 | Positive+$32.08 per $100 · 220 bets |
| rizotor0x1ae6…45e1 | No | 6,249 | 4.7¢ | $197 | — |
| 0x3e59…b2be | No | 6,099 | 4.9¢ | $192 | Losing−$22.45 per $100 · 1,060 bets |
| 0x7678…22a3 | No | 5,051 | 6.6¢ | $159 | — |
| 8014a3d96c0x3592…c68c | No | 4,800 | 7.1¢ | $151 | New34 settled bets |
| MakeAmericaMakeAmericagreatagain0x2b7d…d4b8 | No | 4,072 | 4.8¢ | $128 | — |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 3,800 | 3.0¢ | $120 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 3,678 | 6.5¢ | $116 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| Cungly0x5ccf…79d7 | No | 3,573 | 4.3¢ | $113 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,625 bets |
| 0x59f4…a501 | No | 3,545 | 5.4¢ | $112 | — |
| TheVeiledOne0x42a8…70a5 | No | 3,509 | 5.7¢ | $111 | — |
| Mr-Krabs0x8597…daee | No | 3,476 | 4.8¢ | $109 | Positive+$1.83 per $100 · 838 bets |
| Marco-Rubio0xd67b…5780 | No | 3,167 | 6.3¢ | $100 | Proven+$5.68 per $100 · 1,354 bets |
| 0xMahes0xf670…3cb8 | No | 3,100 | 4.1¢ | $98 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 2,770 | 7.1¢ | $87 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| whichtopick0x6098…c419 | No | 2,738 | 5.4¢ | $86 | — |
| Betmeonce0x6326…01d6 | No | 2,533 | 4.7¢ | $80 | Proven+$20.37 per $100 · 140 bets |
| hivemindilan0xf958…238c | No | 2,338 | 10.3¢ | $74 | — |
| noib0x187f…5fee | No | 2,045 | 7.1¢ | $64 | Positive+$5.43 per $100 · 215 bets |
| rewardbots0x876b…1703 | No | 2,000 | 10.0¢ | $63 | Proven+$11.14 per $100 · 503 bets |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | No | 1,926 | 6.5¢ | $61 | — |
| 0x223b…85df | No | 1,870 | 8.3¢ | $59 | — |
| filaretou0x5a77…f859 | No | 1,807 | 7.7¢ | $57 | — |
| Humble-Monk0x2200…0f2d | No | 1,800 | 4.6¢ | $57 | Proven+$5.72 per $100 · 965 bets |
| IceWindL0xdae6…e440 | No | 1,783 | 6.5¢ | $56 | Proven+$7.53 per $100 · 261 bets |
| xoxy0xec1c…5452 | No | 1,500 | 3.2¢ | $47 | — |
| leeroy20060xa497…f44a | No | 1,484 | 5.2¢ | $47 | — |
| PhilIvey90xdde1…f1d7 | No | 1,195 | 4.9¢ | $38 | New96 settled bets |
| Mormizrahi0x3e13…0929 | No | 1,112 | 4.5¢ | $35 | — |
| FridayImInLove0x152f…c7e7 | No | 1,111 | 4.5¢ | $35 | — |
| Adkr0xc9bf…66f4 | No | 1,042 | 4.8¢ | $33 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 990 | 3.2¢ | $31 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| Fdavid0x8471…db7d | No | 741 | 2.7¢ | $23 | — |
| 0x3dad…f750 | No | 705 | 3.7¢ | $22 | — |
| 0xc44a…8da6 | No | 546 | 6.8¢ | $17 | — |
| 12beduins0xb34b…5d0e | No | 545 | 4.4¢ | $17 | — |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | No | 500 | 3.5¢ | $16 | Proven+$11.57 per $100 · 1,091 bets |
| HODOULO1480xe49b…436d | No | 455 | 3.3¢ | $14 | — |
| mx1560x8a1e…bd03 | No | 417 | 4.8¢ | $13 | Losing−$8.29 per $100 · 352 bets |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | No | 333 | 2.9¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 6,486 bets |
| adasol0x5297…7b99 | No | 227 | 3.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 486 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.