Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.§1

What qualifies

Broad consensus of reporting that core structures of the Islamic Republic are dissolved, incapacitated, replaced, or have lost de facto power over most…§3

How it occurs

May occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.§4

Routine events

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.§5

Internal power shifts

Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic's core structures do not qualify.§6

Counted

Core structures: the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC control under clerical authority.§3

Source

A consensus of credible reporting.§9

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.