Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 15 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | 591,498 | 91.1¢ | $559K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No | 492,077 | 76.3¢ | $465K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| Erasmus.0xc658…b784 | No | 285,171 | 74.2¢ | $269K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 875 bets |
| TeamA0x9ba9…3ce9 | No | 189,420 | 79.3¢ | $179K | New1 settled bet |
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No | 176,290 | 88.4¢ | $167K | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 274 bets |
| shibagege0xb6c8…b9e6 | No | 128,447 | 90.2¢ | $121K | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 395 bets |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No | 120,930 | 88.8¢ | $114K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| scout0x2d99…4ca3 | No | 110,234 | 93.0¢ | $104K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 1,011 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No | 86,068 | 41.3¢ | $81.3K | Proven+$7.93 per $100 · 516 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 85,000 | 94.1¢ | $80.3K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
| TeemuPukki0xc254…3f73 | No | 78,200 | 77.2¢ | $73.9K | Positive+$1.78 per $100 · 1,561 bets |
| Llalalala0x05e2…6e12 | No | 65,290 | 94.0¢ | $61.7K | Proven+$11.42 per $100 · 125 bets |
| Clicker10xc884…e17e | No | 64,967 | 84.5¢ | $61.4K | New24 settled bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 59,845 | 83.6¢ | $56.6K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 21,994 bets |
| yomayoto0xf2fc…7a15 | No | 57,980 | 94.3¢ | $54.8K | New76 settled bets |
| SwissMiss0xdbad…9c95 | No | 55,058 | 54.4¢ | $52K | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| yomayo0x3e35…4956 | No | 52,358 | 94.0¢ | $49.5K | Losing−$2.39 per $100 · 106 bets |
| vacoolaaa0x464e…1a67 | No | 50,000 | 95.0¢ | $47.3K | Losing−$3.60 per $100 · 218 bets |
| Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7 | No | 50,000 | 93.1¢ | $47.2K | Proven+$4.21 per $100 · 360 bets |
| e888880x0d15…c454 | No | 50,000 | 93.0¢ | $47.2K | Losing−$2.14 per $100 · 167 bets |
| yingxer0xded8…ca0f | No | 49,600 | 92.9¢ | $46.9K | New36 settled bets |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | No | 45,069 | 51.4¢ | $42.6K | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 31,278+ bets · updating |
| 0x7832…c6e3 | No | 42,776 | 80.9¢ | $40.4K | New6 settled bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 41,437 | 82.6¢ | $39.2K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 40,205 | 79.5¢ | $38K | Proven+$6.06 per $100 · 622 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 40,000 | 93.1¢ | $37.8K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 10,235 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | No | 40,000 | 90.5¢ | $37.8K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 2,128 bets |
| manekineko0x6606…1338 | No | 40,000 | 91.9¢ | $37.8K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 545 bets |
| cocos2280x8e5c…a68a | No | 39,727 | 79.9¢ | $37.5K | Proven+$17.59 per $100 · 119 bets |
| Tigerofthehood0x9c26…74bc | No | 37,442 | 93.0¢ | $35.4K | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 237 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 34,817 | 92.2¢ | $32.9K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| tajir0x7bb3…2682 | No | 33,333 | 45.9¢ | $31.5K | Proven+$18.55 per $100 · 186 bets |
| 0x485a…21cb | Yes | 545,473 | 10.8¢ | $30K | New55 settled bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 30,333 | 75.2¢ | $28.7K | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,397 bets |
| most80x0b56…3f6b | No | 30,000 | 90.3¢ | $28.4K | New6 settled bets |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | No | 30,000 | 90.0¢ | $28.3K | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| tsybka0xd5cc…dea4 | No | 29,040 | 95.0¢ | $27.4K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 943 bets |
| LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a | Yes | 477,359 | 21.0¢ | $26.3K | Proven+$10.70 per $100 · 391 bets |
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No | 26,665 | 92.1¢ | $25.2K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 720 bets |
| Djfere0x768c…015d | Yes | 451,626 | 13.9¢ | $24.8K | New9 settled bets |
| NECRO-VOID0xf55c…0afe | Yes | 447,435 | 42.2¢ | $24.6K | New13 settled bets |
| gorovi0x1de9…831d | No | 23,126 | 94.2¢ | $21.9K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 398 bets |
| vitamin.eth0x4f0e…8775 | No | 21,897 | 90.6¢ | $20.7K | New30 settled bets |
| 0x92ff…94ce | No | 21,676 | 88.9¢ | $20.5K | New20 settled bets |
| Magamyman0x4dfd…6e4a | No | 21,394 | 48.6¢ | $20.2K | Proven+$49.79 per $100 · 102 bets |
| yomayohaha0x244b…0578 | No | 21,384 | 93.5¢ | $20.2K | New0 settled bets |
| RockyZet0x368b…2458 | No | 20,000 | 92.0¢ | $18.9K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 506 bets |
| suchangNB0xf4da…16c6 | No | 18,879 | 65.2¢ | $17.8K | New12 settled bets |
| SirHarryOakes0x5685…62e2 | No | 18,036 | 91.6¢ | $17K | Proven+$5.58 per $100 · 297 bets |
| 0x26b2…4486 | No | 16,600 | 75.6¢ | $15.7K | Losing−$1.31 per $100 · 308 bets |
| CP-directional0x07e1…27af | No | 15,566 | 92.9¢ | $14.7K | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 141 bets |
| ANGGGuess0xab01…2558 | No | 14,701 | 91.0¢ | $13.9K | New10 settled bets |
| 0x9f49…a184 | No | 14,132 | 55.0¢ | $13.4K | New20 settled bets |
| 0x8e77…c4f3 | No | 12,500 | 85.2¢ | $11.8K | Break-even+$0.52 per $100 · 764 bets |
| Arbguy0x53e5…6177 | Yes | 155,243 | 11.0¢ | $8.54K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 1,106 bets |
| 0xab85…5da3 | Yes | 146,270 | 53.8¢ | $8.04K | New3 settled bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 117,386 | 17.1¢ | $6.46K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| mx1560x8a1e…bd03 | Yes | 100,089 | 7.0¢ | $5.5K | Losing−$8.29 per $100 · 352 bets |
| opulent0x9c0f…7b84 | Yes | 80,634 | 34.5¢ | $4.43K | New19 settled bets |
| inrock300xd576…d5e3 | Yes | 79,501 | 26.2¢ | $4.37K | New97 settled bets |
| Oddsie0xb273…aa63 | Yes | 75,278 | 18.8¢ | $4.14K | Losing−$4.96 per $100 · 120 bets |
| HOD-Capital0xfdfa…7fa8 | Yes | 62,516 | 8.8¢ | $3.44K | New4 settled bets |
| bluecable0xe286…bb11 | Yes | 46,500 | 40.0¢ | $2.56K | New6 settled bets |
| gisg24530x16b7…732f | Yes | 45,760 | 6.2¢ | $2.52K | Losing−$6.21 per $100 · 1,225 bets |
| MisaCanon0xb95a…a0ae | Yes | 45,579 | 27.3¢ | $2.51K | New3 settled bets |
| final-divination0x9ea7…7e1c | Yes | 44,950 | 43.1¢ | $2.47K | New22 settled bets |
| amt45320xe1e3…fad8 | Yes | 44,617 | 52.2¢ | $2.45K | New3 settled bets |
| WCBT0x66d7…5b7b | Yes | 43,833 | 23.4¢ | $2.41K | Losing−$9.96 per $100 · 283 bets |
| Bradking0x35fe…8509 | Yes | 40,766 | 22.3¢ | $2.24K | New51 settled bets |
| Jsmiler0x7f4e…2e3e | Yes | 40,662 | 16.1¢ | $2.24K | New27 settled bets |
| 0x3020…58f9 | Yes | 38,492 | 9.6¢ | $2.12K | New15 settled bets |
| 0x3ac4…0e8b | Yes | 37,500 | 27.5¢ | $2.06K | New47 settled bets |
| 0xc908…696e | Yes | 34,559 | 13.4¢ | $1.9K | New4 settled bets |
| Mori12210xc621…e680 | Yes | 32,698 | 33.3¢ | $1.8K | New43 settled bets |
| Hila19790xce12…4b51 | Yes | 22,857 | 7.0¢ | $1.26K | New0 settled bets |
| ItisHaruka0x7e09…7eba | Yes | 22,609 | 10.9¢ | $1.24K | New12 settled bets |
| 0xe16f…6d1f | Yes | 22,210 | 37.7¢ | $1.22K | New13 settled bets |
| anonymoustradersolo0x27fe…60ca | Yes | 20,863 | 25.8¢ | $1.15K | New13 settled bets |
| 0x8944…c3fd | Yes | 20,437 | 48.9¢ | $1.12K | New7 settled bets |
| Polly670x364f…1515 | Yes | 20,198 | 17.2¢ | $1.11K | Losing−$25.47 per $100 · 122 bets |
| Levoin0x893a…29dc | Yes | 18,666 | 53.6¢ | $1.03K | New33 settled bets |
| 0x3131…b77b | Yes | 18,513 | 20.0¢ | $1.02K | New11 settled bets |
| bernardpichaud0xedba…9506 | Yes | 18,000 | 18.0¢ | $990 | Losing−$11.45 per $100 · 186 bets |
| gambler4fun0x2d1e…47d5 | Yes | 16,778 | 25.9¢ | $923 | New13 settled bets |
| hol-div0x273d…d0ed | Yes | 16,617 | 31.4¢ | $914 | New6 settled bets |
| 0x2559…2032 | Yes | 16,131 | 62.0¢ | $887 | New23 settled bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 15,662 | 5.0¢ | $861 | Positive+$3.55 per $100 · 1,959 bets |
| 0xfd88…12b8 | Yes | 15,318 | 16.6¢ | $843 | New2 settled bets |
| AGcopytr0x49d2…59f7 | Yes | 15,000 | 11.0¢ | $825 | New37 settled bets |
| 0xf0cb…4e22 | Yes | 14,286 | 7.0¢ | $786 | New24 settled bets |
| Pentagon.insider.informator0x2ce1…cb42 | Yes | 14,140 | 23.1¢ | $778 | New4 settled bets |
| BigCaes0x5f22…6112 | Yes | 13,990 | 22.8¢ | $769 | New25 settled bets |
| Jahanbani0x550b…8a3e | Yes | 13,586 | 27.9¢ | $747 | New5 settled bets |
| vk70x74db…4ca5 | Yes | 13,281 | 35.8¢ | $730 | New59 settled bets |
| MERKABANK0x945e…f014 | Yes | 12,550 | 8.2¢ | $690 | New89 settled bets |
| ded-ind-emp-seer0x96cf…94ae | Yes | 12,290 | 41.9¢ | $676 | New11 settled bets |
| Mira9110x1581…b8d2 | Yes | 11,804 | 61.0¢ | $649 | New15 settled bets |
| BIC050xf285…1b96 | Yes | 11,000 | 47.0¢ | $605 | New6 settled bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 10,970 | 33.4¢ | $603 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| 0x5856…e2b1 | Yes | 10,818 | 33.0¢ | $595 | New14 settled bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.