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Topic · Geopolitics
12 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
1.6% of Polymarket
Events · markets
8 · 12
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
4 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 94.5¢ | up 1 point this week | $4.66M |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:17 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| No |
| 89.0¢ |
| up 1.5 points this week |
| $0.23M |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? | December 31 | 39.5¢ | – | $0.18M |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? | No | 99.3¢ | up 0.2 points this week | $42.3K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027? | No | 84.5¢ | – | $13.3K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? | No | 77.5¢ | up 1 point this week | $10.8K |
| Iran invades Kuwait by...? | December 31 | 2.6¢ | down 0.6 points this week | $4.5K |
| Will Iran target Kuwait by...? | October 31 | 28.5¢ | down 8.5 points this week | $639 |
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $559.0K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $469.8K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| Erasmus.0xc658…b784 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $269.5K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 875 bets |
| TeamA0x9ba9…3ce9 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $179.0K | New1 settled bet |
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $166.6K | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 274 bets |
| shibagege0xb6c8…b9e6 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $121.4K | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 395 bets |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $114.3K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| scout0x2d99…4ca3 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $104.2K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 1,011 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $81.3K | Proven+$7.93 per $100 · 516 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $80.3K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.