Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:28 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yomayo0x3e35…4956 | No | 5,000 | 75.0¢ | $3.85K | Losing−$2.39 per $100 · 106 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 3,000 | 76.9¢ | $2.31K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Tomson4560x7d9f…f01b | Yes | 6,027 | 24.9¢ | $1.39K | New61 settled bets |
| Marco-Rubio0xd67b…5780 | Yes | 2,253 | 23.0¢ | $518 | Proven+$5.68 per $100 · 1,354 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | No | 646 | 77.0¢ | $497 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| hping020x9e25…afd6 | No | 459 | 77.0¢ | $353 | — |
Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play