Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:50 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yomayo0x3e35…4956 | No | 5,000 | 75.0¢ | $3.83K | Losing−$2.39 per $100 · 106 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 3,000 | 76.9¢ | $2.3K | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| Tomson4560x7d9f…f01b | Yes | 6,027 | 24.9¢ | $1.42K | New61 settled bets |
| Marco-Rubio0xd67b…5780 | Yes | 2,253 | 23.0¢ | $529 | Proven+$5.68 per $100 · 1,354 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | No | 646 | 77.0¢ | $494 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| hping020x9e25…afd6 | No | 459 | 77.0¢ | $351 | — |
| DFK0x0dde…94c3 | No | 359 | 77.0¢ | $275 | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 713 bets |
| Mrdov0xf751…5f64 | Yes | 1,029 | 24.9¢ | $242 | — |
| autisem0xea41…1c98 | Yes | 886 | 23.0¢ | $208 | — |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 269 | 74.0¢ | $206 | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| aignent0xf22e…9a18 | No | 236 | 78.0¢ | $180 | — |
| archaic0x1f0a…f7aa | No | 227 | 75.8¢ | $174 | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 3,369 bets |
| 0x2574…144b | No | 200 | 77.0¢ | $153 | — |
| TheOne7770x2b62…438c | No | 200 | 77.0¢ | $153 | Proven+$19.42 per $100 · 1,428 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 188 | 76.1¢ | $144 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| Lashibucapiguyonghand0x78b3…a139 | Yes | 540 | 24.1¢ | $127 | — |
| baybug0xfb66…5e13 | No | 146 | 75.4¢ | $112 | — |
| 0xf040…d11f | No | 118 | 77.0¢ | $90 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 100 | 77.0¢ | $77 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 75 | 77.0¢ | $57 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,902+ bets · updating |
| TronOG0x77c3…00c8 | Yes | 200 | 24.0¢ | $47 | Proven+$3.07 per $100 · 406 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | No | 52 | 76.0¢ | $40 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 100 | 23.0¢ | $24 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,947 bets |
| Dolgil250x7c95…4d3b | Yes | 100 | 24.0¢ | $24 | — |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | No | 28 | 77.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$25.76 per $100 · 100 bets |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 26 | 78.3¢ | $20 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| 0xb15d…558a | No | 26 | 77.0¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xe7a1…965f | No | 26 | 77.8¢ | $20 | — |
| malluc0x5839…c975 | No | 26 | 77.0¢ | $20 | — |
| Wartlock0xe856…3789 | No | 25 | 80.0¢ | $19 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 21 | 77.0¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Donny.T0x8190…b247 | No | 20 | 75.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 764 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Yes | 64 | 20.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 22,035 bets |
| NADA390x0ba8…51ca | Yes | 61 | 23.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 61 | 23.0¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,993 bets |
| Pitosyflautas0x9f3e…5bc9 | Yes | 60 | 22.0¢ | $14 | — |
| rocky420230xd035…f165 | Yes | 55 | 23.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Barlog100x29f4…1348 | Yes | 42 | 24.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Miguel2621440x2df5…51ac | Yes | 33 | 25.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$4.12 per $100 · 9,181 bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 75.0¢ | $8 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 10 | 75.0¢ | $8 | — |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | No | 9 | 76.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x5059…6d95 | No | 9 | 78.0¢ | $7 | — |
| seppohovi0x2d4c…2dd4 | No | 8 | 78.4¢ | $6 | New59 settled bets |
| EndofBeginning880x7828…381b | No | 6 | 77.0¢ | $4 | — |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 6 | 75.4¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| 0x8875…2bad | No | 5 | 77.0¢ | $4 | — |
| bountyhunter0010x54d6…ef35 | No | 5 | 78.0¢ | $4 | — |
| wtxx0x4eee…cada | No | 4 | 76.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Salzpack0x8ba7…a1c6 | Yes | 12 | 25.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Erfan440x9c6d…bc38 | Yes | 10 | 24.0¢ | $2 | — |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 9 | 24.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$5.77 per $100 · 77,753+ bets · updating |
| 0xd8c2…105e | Yes | 5 | 24.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x91ad…b29e | No | 1 | 77.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2a9d…4124 | No | 1 | 77.8¢ | $1 | — |
| mvmca16110x3744…d422 | No | 1 | 78.0¢ | $1 | — |
| wantbehappy0x56e8…a57c | No | 1 | 78.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.74 per $100 · 240 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 4 | 22.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Oxae5839b89d47738616264276Ac1F0D77F936E5C50xae58…e5c5 | No | 1 | 76.0¢ | $1 | — |
| erFiodena0x961b…2b00 | No | 0 | 61.0¢ | $0 | — |
| scalerr0xe50e…45c5 | No | 0 | 78.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 24.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play