Market · 1 of 3 outcomes
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:16 UTC. Not financial advice.
Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 5,594 | 35.6¢ | $2.21K | Proven+$5.20 per $100 · 2,221 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 2,000 | 63.0¢ | $1.21K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| OneLastHurrah0x7803…9e91 | No | 1,313 | 65.0¢ | $794 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,312 | 64.0¢ | $794 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 1,000 | 62.5¢ | $605 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 29,989+ bets · updating |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | No | 622 | 63.2¢ | $376 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 1 shares each side · Show
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